Europe is preparing for wrong war

Specifically, she needs to prepare for the war of the future, not the war of the past. And that future war is already unfolding on the Russian-Ukrainian front.

I agree: Europe should invest in converting Volkswagen plants into tank factories. Maybe switch from F-35s to Rafales. Of course, ramping up production of 155mm shells is necessary. And if the U.S. stops supplying Patriots, then Europe needs to produce as many SAMP/Ts as possible to defend its skies.

"All of that makes sense. But right now, we’re witnessing a technological shift as significant as the transition from muskets to rifles, from bolt-action rifles to machine guns, from cavalry to tanks, from propeller planes to jets."

To build a tank, you need a factory, the right equipment, trained workers, and a network of suppliers — because no single enterprise can handle everything. A tank is electronics, metallurgy, chemicals, and more.

This whole system of people and industries will produce a massive armored vehicle worth $5–7 million. And in minutes, it will be incinerated in battle by a $1,000 FPV drone, built in someone’s apartment by one person with a bit of technical skill.

That drone will be piloted remotely by a gamer who was playing Counter-Strike yesterday and today just wiped out a multi-million-dollar machine. But forget the tank — its crew burned inside. The commander, driver, gunner, and loader. And besides the fact that those lives are lost forever, the money spent on their training wasn’t just $1,000 — it was far more.

"The future of warfare isn’t about tanks. It’s about artificial intelligence controlling swarms of drones. And a swarm of hundreds or even thousands of drones will cost far less than a single Patriot or SAMP/T system worth $1 billion."

That air defense system, which took years to develop and produce, won’t even get a chance to fire its $10 million missiles before it's destroyed. A drone swarm will simply overwhelm its targeting systems, jam its guidance, and prevent it from locking onto anything. And anyway, a $10 million missile isn’t going to shoot down a hundred tiny flying machines.

These drones will cross into enemy airspace, strike airfields, and destroy fifth-generation fighters worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Eventually, they will tear through outdated air defense networks and reach tank factories, supply depots, command centers, missile launch sites, naval bases — even nuclear weapons storage facilities.

Near the front lines, these "birds" will incinerate everything within their reach. Destroyed vehicles will rust in the fields, while soldiers hide underground, dehydrated and exhausted, knowing that even stepping outside could mean instant death from a waiting swarm. And their commanders never stocked up on their own drones to counter this threat, to clear the “small sky,” to protect their troops.

"Victory won’t depend on the number of tanks and jets but on the number of drones, the capabilities of AI, the strength of electronic warfare, and the speed of mass production. That’s what war will look like. That’s what war essentially already is."

We get it, the Russians get it. But the Europeans don’t — not yet. They’ve woken up just to start preparing for another Gulf War.

Source

About the author. Denys Popovych, journalist, military observer.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.