Trump’s view of Russia-Ukraine driven by personal ties — Bolton

In a recent interview John Bolton outlined the reasoning behind Donald Trump's approach to Ukraine and Russia, highlighting Trump's relationship-driven foreign policy. 

Donald Trump views international relations through the lens of his personal relationships with foreign leaders. "He thinks that if he has good relations with Putin, then the U.S. has good relations with Russia," John Bolton explains. "That’s not true, but that’s what he thinks. He thinks he and Putin are friends."

In contrast, Trump's relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been strained ever since the infamous “perfect phone call” of 2019, which led to his first impeachment. As a result, he operates on the belief that favoring his allies—such as making concessions on Ukraine—will somehow lead to peace. Trump is eager to put the war behind him, convinced that it is Biden’s conflict. "He said during the campaign it never would have happened had he been president," Bolton notes.

However, Putin does not share Trump’s view of their dynamic. "Putin doesn’t think they’re friends. He thinks Trump is an easy mark. And he thinks he’s manipulable," Bolton says. The Kremlin has exploited this, as seen when Putin recently remarked, "You know, Trump was right that if he had been president, there wouldn’t have been a war in Ukraine." Bolton adds, "Well, maybe so, maybe not. But Trump loved to hear that." Shortly after, Russia facilitated the release of hostage Mark Foley, followed by Belarus releasing another American detainee.

Still, Bolton warns that Putin must tread carefully. "I think Putin’s got to be very careful that he doesn’t overstep it here and risk losing some of the concessions that Trump has made." Trump's recent remarks suggest he may be growing impatient, suspecting that Putin is deliberately stalling. "It’s not inevitable that Putin’s going to get everything that he wants," Bolton acknowledges. "He could make a mistake, but the odds are in his favor now."

• Historian and expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, believes that as long as the situation is working in Russia’s favor, Putin is trying to lock in his territorial gains and then make his exit.