What to expect from U.S. in 2026

The first factor means that Trump will slow down on reckless and rash decisions. A number of trends favorable to him have emerged this year, and he will focus on these.

First and foremost — the tariff war. Although he doesn't achieve what he declares, he is achieving some success.

In 2026, he will have a serious tariff conflict with Mexico and Canada amid a review of trade agreements. Also, potential responses from the EU to his tariff moves will provoke verbal diarrhea and virtual confrontation. All this will end quite peacefully, without radical changes.

Secondly — China. This year Trump will be significantly more cautious, since his cavalier tariff assault on the Chinese didn't bring him the desired result. Obviously, he will conflict with the Chinese on economic matters and Taiwan. For China, 2026 is a key year in preparing for an invasion of Taiwan. So I think there will be many various provocative Chinese military exercises. On the American side, there is very serious determination to defend Taiwan, and the $11 billion in military aid is a signal of this.

"Finally, the key issue — peace efforts combined with limited operations. Trump will continue playing peacemaker, but at the same time will conduct limited operations, like in Venezuela or strikes against Iran."

The key question for him will remain our war. Here events will unfold as follows:

January-February will be an attempt to obtain strong results in the form of preliminary agreements, an agreed-upon plan for achieving peace. This will not succeed. The Russians will propose a format of working groups that will not actually work.

After this, at the end of February or in March, Trump may resort to another round of harsh steps — secondary sanctions on India or China for using Russian oil.

At the same time, he may take harsh measures against us as well, since his strategy is to pressure both sides and see which breaks first. Most likely, a new blocking of weapons and intelligence is possible, with a demand to agree to a deal.

"I predict that these actions will lead to approaching a peace agreement and ceasefire by late spring to early summer. There won't be an actual peace agreement in 2026, but a ceasefire and truce — I give it 90%."

These efforts will indeed bring him a Nobel Prize. I also predict a Republican victory in the midterm elections and retention of control over both chambers. The U.S. economy will be fairly stable, Trump's political successes on the international stage will maintain his support, while the Democrats still haven't resolved the question of leadership and a competitor to Trump.

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About the author: Viktor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

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