Washington talks: why Trump is stalling on Ukraine

1. Unfortunately, Trump has now decided to postpone the Ukrainian question and focus on Greenland and the Middle East. But this does not mean that the Ukrainian question has been shoved into the dead end of a back drawer. 

"The logic of the November elections in the U.S. will force Trump to return to the Ukrainian question in the next few weeks."

2. The visit of the Ukrainian delegation was preceded by fairly active preparatory work. Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.S. Olha Stefanishyna held a series of meetings with those in America who make decisions regarding budgets and sanctions. In particular, the ambassador met with Mike Rogers (chairman of the Committee with Ted Cruz (chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, and he is also a co-author of sanctions against the Russian Federation). With him they discussed the scheme: supply of American gas to Ukraine as part of security guarantees. There were also contact meetings with the Heritage Foundation, which is the main think tank of the Republicans.

3. At the same time, it's worth noting that the Ukrainian delegation will meet with Kushner, Witkoff and Drixol (essentially — a representative of Vance, with whom Budanov has good relations, who joined the Ukrainian negotiating group). Simply put — negotiations are happening at the highest level possible today.

4. I've already written this, but I'll repeat again: Trump's logic is, first and foremost, the logic of negotiations with China, where he needs to counter the rare earth elements blackmail with something. Right now this logic fits into three main things:

• control over the world oil market with the ability to dictate prices;
• thanks to this and not only — increase the volume of trade in dollars;
• try to gain control over the main logistical points of the world (Northern Sea Route, Suez and Panama Canals).

4. Based on this logic, Trump doesn't need an end to the war in Ukraine for now. It's beneficial for him to continue weakening Russia. At the same time, it's worth noting that all the mentioned points are far from a close finish. And therefore life will inevitably make its adjustments.

Unfortunately, the blitzkrieg we were counting on is definitely being postponed. But I remain of the opinion that the next negotiating window of opportunity will open in spring, and it will be dictated, first and foremost, by the logic of elections and the beginning of negotiations with China.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist. 

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