U.S.-Iran tensions: What it means for Ukraine

Here’s what I’ve identified: the postponement of negotiations between Iran and the U.S., the explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port, the Houthi ballistic Palestine-2 missile strike near the perimeter of Ben Gurion Airport, Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase oil production, and Trump’s announced visit to the region in May.

Let’s break down what all of this means for Ukraine, using the analytical framework from BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,335 (March 4, 2025) – “Assessment Is Nothing, Assessing Is Everything” by Shay Shabtai. He outlines nine parameters for analyzing fast-moving situations. Let’s dive in!

1. Verification and Validity

This parameter evaluates how well events are confirmed by facts and how biases can distort the assessment.

Postponement of U.S.-Iran negotiations: Oman and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that the fourth round (May 3, 2025) was postponed due to “logistical and technical reasons.” Few specifics were provided, raising doubts about progress. Bias: Since the U.S. left the JCPOA in 2018, it’s easy to assume this is just another failure, though the reason might be minor.

Explosion at Shahid Rajaee Port: Iranian sources vaguely cited “negligence,” with no official data available. Social media is full of speculation about Israeli sabotage, but for now, that’s unproven. Bias: It’s tempting to blame Israel for everything due to its hostility with Iran.

Houthi strike on Ben Gurion: The Houthis launched a Palestine-2 missile that bypassed Arrow and THAAD systems, hitting the airport perimeter. Six to eight people were wounded, and flights were halted. Iran denies involvement. Bias: It’s easy to accuse Iran, since it backs the Houthis, but there’s no direct evidence.

Saudi Arabia’s decision: Saudi Arabia plans to pump more oil, aiming for prices of $45–50 per barrel. This aligns with Trump’s strategy to pressure Russia and Iran. Bias: It’s easy to overestimate the impact on Russia, forgetting that OPEC+ (including Russia) can adjust production to compensate.

Trump’s visit: Announced for May 2025, though details are scarce. Bias: Given Trump’s rhetoric, people expect bold moves, but it could just be PR.

How does this affect Ukraine? Unreliable information about the explosion and negotiations calls for caution in evaluating their impact on Iranian arms supplies to Russia. The Houthi strike and falling oil prices are real factors, but exaggerating their effects could prevent Ukraine from adequately preparing for worse.

2. Evaluation context

This section looks at the external and internal factors shaping events, even if Iran or Russia don’t change their approach.

Regional factors: Postponing the negotiations stalls the nuclear deal, keeping sanctions on Iran and its cooperation with Russia intact. If the port explosion was sabotage, it could disrupt Iran’s logistics, including arms exports to Russia — but without solid proof, that’s just speculation. The Houthi strike escalates tensions with Israel, which might retaliate against Yemen or Iran, complicating U.S. negotiations. While the Houthis are Iran’s proxy, Iran’s direct involvement hasn’t been proven. Increased oil production means lower prices, which hurts Russia (about 30% of its budget relies on oil revenue) and, to some extent, Iran. Trump’s visit might boost U.S. influence but could also shift focus away from Ukraine to Israel or Iran.

International factors: Russia is interfering in the negotiations by offering to store Iranian uranium to strengthen its leverage. China is siding with Iran and Russia against the West. Europe (especially France and Germany) is nervous about being sidelined in the talks, which is causing divisions within the Western alliance. The U.S. is using low oil prices as pressure.

Internal context: Iran’s economy is in deep trouble (the rial is plunging, sanctions are suffocating), and its allies (Assad, Hezbollah) have faded or weakened — though the Houthis and Russia remain solid partners. Russia is increasingly reliant on imported weapons, including Iranian drones and missiles. Ukraine is holding its ground with Western support, but that backing could weaken as the Middle East heats up.

How does this affect Ukraine? Falling oil prices hurt Russia, but the Houthi strike and stalled negotiations risk distracting the West. Ukraine needs to stay vigilant to avoid being pushed to the sidelines.

3. Assessment levels

This parameter breaks down the impact of events at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels, and examines how they are connected.

At the strategic level, a successful deal could crash oil prices and cut off the flow of Iranian weapons to Russia — a huge win for Ukraine. Failure would strengthen the Iran-Russia alliance. If the port explosion turns out to be sabotage, it could weaken Iran with possible long-term effects. Low oil prices shrink Russia’s budget, limiting its war capabilities. Trump may pressure Iran, but if the focus shifts to Israel, that’s a negative for Ukraine.

At the operational level, it’s worth lobbying the U.S. and EU to include a clause in the nuclear deal that blocks Iranian arms shipments. Keep monitoring Iranian ports to see if the explosion disrupts exports. Also, study Houthi missile tech (similar to Russia’s) to improve air defense.

At the tactical level, the strike on Ben Gurion shows that ballistic missiles are a serious threat. Ukraine needs to strengthen its air defenses, especially against Fath-360 missiles. If the port explosion was sabotage, it might slow down shipments of Shahed drones to Russia, but that’s uncertain since most are routed through Caspian Sea ports.

How does this affect Ukraine? Strategically, falling oil prices are a key advantage for Ukraine, but rising tensions from the Houthis are a drawback. Operationally, it needs to keep up the pressure on the West; tactically, the country must prepare it air defenses for missile threats.

4. Projection

This parameter looks at how these events will impact other players and the bigger picture.

If the deal goes through, Russia loses oil revenue, Iran’s military influence shrinks, and their allies (China, North Korea) also take a hit. If it fails, the Iran-Russia axis gains strength. If the port explosion turns out to be sabotage, Iran might lose momentum in supplying weapons to Russia — but without solid facts, that’s just speculation. A surge in escalation could drag Israel and the U.S. into conflict with Yemen or Iran, pulling resources away from Ukraine. The Houthis may ramp up their attacks. Lower oil prices hurt Russia and Iran, which also weakens their proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah) — a win for Ukraine. Trump might put more pressure on Iran, but if he gets too caught up with Israel, Ukraine risks being sidelined.

How does this affect Ukraine? Weakening Russia and Iran is a key opportunity, but a conflict over the Houthis or failed negotiations could complicate Western support. Ukraine needs to work on building ties with Saudi Arabia, even though it won’t be easy.

5. Impact of responding to opportunities and risks

This parameter looks at what happens if we seize opportunities or overlook risks.

Starting with opportunities: a deal that blocks Iranian weapons from reaching Russia would be a game changer. Ukraine needs to push hard through the U.S., EU, and possibly Saudi Arabia. Falling oil prices are also a major advantage. It should lobby to prevent OPEC+ from adjusting production to raise prices. It’s likely Ukraine can persuade the U.S. to keep it on its radar.

Now the risks: if negotiations fail, Iran and Russia will continue as usual. Careful forecasting can prevent panic. Ignoring possible sabotage is a missed opportunity; exaggerating it is just pointless noise. Escalation could pull the U.S. into a regional conflict, draining attention from Ukraine. If OPEC+ raises prices, Russia will stay afloat. And if Trump’s visit focuses mainly on Israel, Ukraine risks being sidelined.

How does this affect Ukraine? It must seize every chance to pressure Iran and Russia, but be ready for the West to get distracted by the Middle East. Lobbying and strengthening air defense are absolutely critical.

6. Meaning of continuity or change

This parameter analyzes the implications if everything stays the same versus if things change.

If nothing changes and negotiations fail, Iran will keep supplying weapons to Russia. If the explosion was accidental, Iran’s logistics won’t be heavily affected. The Houthis will keep launching attacks, and Israel/the U.S. will keep responding. If Trump’s visit is vague and without clear outcomes, Ukraine remains on the sidelines.

What about change? A new deal with a clause blocking arms shipments would hit Russia hard — look for signs of reduced exports. If the explosion was sabotage, Iran’s supply chain could slow — watch for port delays. Israeli strikes on Yemen could weaken Iran — track airstrike reports. Oil prices are already falling, putting pressure on Russia — watch their shrinking budget. New sanctions on Iran would be a game changer — look for U.S. statements.

How does this affect Ukraine? Positive changes (like falling oil prices and disrupted Iranian logistics) are a win for the country. But if Iran and Russia stay strong together, it needs to be ready for a long fight.

7. The price of error

This parameter weighs the risks if we misjudge the situation.

If we underestimate failed negotiations, Russia will keep getting Iranian missiles. Missing sabotage means Ukraine loses a chance to pressure Iran; overreacting just stirs up panic. Underestimating escalation could see the U.S. bogged down in war, leaving Ukraine out in the cold; overestimating causes needless alarm. Overestimating the impact of falling oil prices — without considering OPEC+ — could make Ukraine falsely believe Russia’s collapse is imminent. Relying too much on Trump could mean missing crucial lobbying opportunities.

How does this affect Ukraine? A wrong move could lead to more attacks and less Western aid. We need to verify facts and avoid banking on miracles.

8. Use of the assessment

This parameter shows how the assessment can be used — and what happens if it’s ignored.

In negotiations, the country should lobby hard for Ukraine’s interests to be included. If the explosion was sabotage, the assessment supports ramping up pressure on Iran’s logistics. Regarding Saudi Arabia’s oil decisions, the assessment reinforces the push to keep economic pressure on Russia via OPEC+. Ukraine must keep persuading the U.S. to prioritize it.

If the assessment is ignored, the West could get distracted by the Middle East, leaving Ukraine without support. Ukraine must stay loud about its needs.

How does this affect Ukraine? This assessment is a tool to keep pressure on Iran, Russia, and the West. Without it, Ukraine risks falling off the radar.

9. Realization

This parameter explains why the forecast worked — or didn’t — and whether it validates the assessment.

If the deal stops Iranian weapons, the assessment proved accurate. If Russia still gets Shaheds, the deal was weak — not the assessment wrong. If Iran’s logistics slow, sabotage was confirmed. If not, it was likely an accident or coincidence. If the West gets bogged down in the region, the assessment was right. If war is avoided, diplomacy worked. Falling oil prices are already hurting Russia — proof the assessment is solid. If Iran faces new sanctions, the forecast was spot on. If focus shifts to Israel, that’s politics — not our error.

How does this affect Ukraine? Positive outcomes (like falling oil prices or halting weapons) are a win for the country. If Russia holds on, it’s a sign of Western weakness, not a failure on Ukraine's part.

So, in summary:

Events in the Middle East — the postponement of negotiations, the port explosion, the Houthi strike on Ben Gurion, Saudi Arabia’s oil maneuvers, and Trump’s announced visit — affect Ukraine through Russia and Iran. Falling oil prices tear up Russia’s budget, and disruptions in Iranian logistics may slow the flow of Shahed and Fath-360. But the Houthi strike and stalled negotiations smell of escalation, which could distract the West from Ukraine's problems. Ukraine needs to lobby for a clause in the nuclear deal to stop Iranian weapons, monitor Iranian ports and oil prices, and prepare air defense for rising ballistic threats.

Source

About the author: Ihor Semyvolos, Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.