Trump’s election brings politics to every American household

The biggest problem with Trump's tariffs is not the economic losses of others, but the destruction of established political and security alliances, and the overall unpredictability of global politics. Times of turbulence are always marked by new wars and panic-driven expectations. Rules, previous calculations, and red lines have simply lost their meaning. However, new, unexpected alliances can emerge, such as joint actions by Japan, South Korea, and China to protect themselves from U.S. tariff policies—measures taken by lifelong competitors, and sometimes even enemies. And this is just the beginning.

I believe that the behavior of the White House also presents a good opportunity for China to strengthen its influence in other regions, particularly in Europe.

It seems to me that Trump's strategic mistake is his lifelong belief that money can solve everything. However, money does not solve everything in big politics. The results of the talks with Putin are further proof of this. 

The role of the United States in the world was built not only on the American economy, but also on the political authority of the United States. That is why the world chose the dollar. Now, however, everything American will not inspire trust. The hints of Europe's gradual abandonment of certain types of American weapons out of fear that these weapons could suddenly be “cut off” are also just the beginning.

Even for the domestic American consumer, Trump's game is extremely risky. Hopes that everyone will simply rush to set up production in the United States are somewhat simplistic, as business is always looking for predictable rules, and this is hardly the case with Trump's current America.

Another risk is time. Even if Trump's economists are correct in their calculations, the effect of balancing the trade deficit in the U.S. won't happen in a month or even a year. Meanwhile, prices will rise immediately, and this will hurt voters. The uniqueness of the current situation in the U.S. is that both chambers of Congress and the White House are controlled by the Republicans. If the Republican monopoly is broken, the entire incredible superstructure of Trumpism will collapse. For reference, the midterm elections for the House of Representatives in the U.S. will take place next year.

There is also a positive side. If, due to the global recession, oil prices fall and remain low for at least a couple of years, it can be considered that there will be some benefit from Trump's "innovations."

The definitely bad part of this story is that the global tariff war will reduce interest in the war in Ukraine—everyone will now have enough of their own problems. But on the other hand—let me try to make a bad joke—Ukraine is in a better position in this tariff war. Because we’ve been in a real war for a long time, and we’ve learned to adapt to many things. The rest of the world still has to learn.

P.S. Do you remember when I said that after Trump’s election, politics would reach every American? Well, here it is.

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About the author. Serhiy Taran, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.