Trump has not changed his stance, he has acknowledged reality

Trump now appears to have a better understanding of the frontline situation, the current state of Russia’s economy, and the real reasons for the war — that’s how Western media this week describe the change in rhetoric from the U.S. president

Whether that is truly the case only Trump himself can say, but let’s try to assess what might have prompted such a shift.

1. Disbelief in Ukraine’s resistance

When Trump began his second presidential term, it was clear he did not believe Ukraine could resist. This was said almost openly: Russia has more of everything — population, territory, money. Fighting it made no sense, he thought, because Ukraine would collapse under the pressure of a far more powerful Russia and inevitably lose. Nobody likes to lose, so Trump chose what he saw as the winner’s side — Russia.

Putin fed this perception with intensifying attacks on Ukrainian cities and promises of an overwhelming summer offensive that would wipe Ukraine off the map.

But by September, it was time to take stock, and everyone saw that Russia, with all its vast resources — Shaheds, Kalibr missiles, hundreds of thousands of paid mercenaries — had achieved nothing in months. In reality, Russia’s military strength turned out to be largely a myth, since truly strong countries can quickly defeat a weaker opponent.

2. Realizing it’s not a war for territory

Another revelation for Trump, most likely, was that this war is not about territory.

Putin is not fighting for Kramatorsk or Melitopol. His goals are about reshaping spheres of influence, carving out a “special place” for Russia in Europe and the world. Ukraine’s role in that scheme was to serve as a sacrificial victim. Rapid destruction of Ukrainian independence, installation of a puppet pro-Russian government in Kyiv, and turning Ukraine into a “friendly” state like Belarus was meant to demonstrate Russia’s claims to global status.

Once this became clear in the Trump administration, perceptions of the war and of Russia’s “successes” shifted. After immense losses of manpower and equipment, Putin managed in several months only to seize a handful of villages. If this were a war for territory, that might be called success. But Putin is not fighting for villages. The colossal losses — tens of thousands of dead and billions spent — have not brought him any closer to his strategic goals.

3. Phases of the war

The first stage of the full-scale invasion was meant to be a blitzkrieg to quickly destroy Ukrainian independence. Ukraine won that phase — preserving its sovereignty, pushing Russian troops back from Kyiv and Kharkiv, and liberating Kherson.

Any rational leader would have drawn conclusions and ended a losing war. But Putin’s obsession with Ukraine pushed him to continue — a war he cannot win. The longer it drags on, the further he is not only from a “new Yalta,” but even from a “new Minsk.”

This realization appears to have led to a change in Trump’s stance toward Putin, Europeans, and Ukraine. Even the White House now understands the overall futility of Putin’s strategy and the pointlessness of continuing the war. Ukraine will never, under any circumstances, be friendly to Russia again.

Neither Europe nor Trump himself intends to hold talks with Putin about dividing spheres of influence — what he calls “eliminating the root causes of the conflict.” So the phrase “let them at least give up Kramatorsk” has no practical meaning and is only used to fool the American president and buy time.

The current stage is a war of attrition — one that drains Russia as well. The Russian government’s announcement this week of higher taxes shows it plans to keep fighting. If you were preparing to end a war, you wouldn’t raise taxes. Trump is again calling this madness and demanding that Putin stop the war.

“This is not a change of position, it’s a recognition of reality,” commented U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance on Trump’s remarks. One can only hope that this recognition of reality by Americans will help strengthen Ukraine in practice and truly bring this war to an end.

Source

 About the author: Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of Parliament of Ukraine.

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