Lukashenko-Kellogg meeting

1. I don’t believe the stories about Lukashenko as a peacemaker who might almost become a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations. Why? Because he can’t influence Putin. Not at all. Secondly, Ukraine rejected such mediation after 2022. I could continue the list of “why not,” but this is enough for now.

2. The other day, I read an exotic version that Trump wants to pass something to Xi through Lukashenko. It’s hard to come up with a bigger nonsense. But for some reason, Belarusians like it.

3. My version remains unchanged. Kellogg had to “take the temperature” of Belarus' readiness/unreadiness to become a springboard for a possible future Russian offensive against the Baltic states/Poland/Ukraine after the Zapad 2025 drills. And, most likely, he was to receive a warning not to do this.

In this context, I’ll repeat what I said before: Lukashenko will not agree to this because of China’s position, which needs normalized relations with the EU and the EU markets. An attack on Ukraine, and especially on an EU country, through Belarus would be an argument for worsening those relations and the loss of highly profitable business.

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About the author. Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

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