Empty talks in Istanbul: Putin fears Russia’s post-war future

But Istanbul confirmed a paradoxical point. Donald Trump keeps saying he wants to end the war as soon as possible. Yet it is his actions that prolong the fighting.

Why does the war continue? Because Putin wants to fight. The Russian ultimatum in Istanbul confirms it. Russia is not seeking peace. Why? Even though the Russian army is being depleted, just like the Russian economy.

Shouldn't Putin, as a rational actor, want to end the war and exit while Trump is building him a golden bridge covered with a red carpet? To leave at the peak.

He should, if he felt the risks of “not doing so.” But he doesn't. Because Trump has handed Putin a blank check. Except instead of an amount, it’s an open date.

Trump has created conditions that make Putin believe he can stop the war at any moment, and still get pardoned for his crimes and be allowed back into the global game. There’s no cost for continuing the war.

This gives Putin the opportunity to postpone making any decision, something he often does in crises. He may think he’ll always “have time.” On one hand, the war is draining the economy. But on the other hand, Putin fears what might happen in Russia once the war ends. So he preserves the status quo. He sees the risks as balanced. Could he be wrong, and could this delay push the Russian economy to a point of no return or a major crisis? Possibly. Or maybe not. Even smart, rational economists can’t predict that.

We don’t know whether Putin is rational on this issue. In fact, we don’t really know how much sanity or twisted rationality he still retains. If he’s completely lost his grip, then none of this analysis matters. But if he’s still rational, then for now, he can justify to himself why the war must go on, thanks to Trump’s brilliant negotiation strategy.

If Putin knew that prolonging the war would cost him additional sanctions and more pain, the risks might look different — risks to him personally and to his regime. Because, of course, he doesn't care about the thousands of Russians who might die during that time. In fact, it’s even preferable for him to “dispose of” the masses who could cause problems after the war. But Trump is eager to strike some kind of deal with Putin and therefore refuses to apply additional pressure. And without added pressure, without new sanctions, there’s no price for continuing the war. So Putin carries on.

And most importantly in this situation is to show Putin that he’s wrong, and that there will be a price for prolonging the war. That’s why potential new U.S. sanctions are so important. Not as an economic blow, but as a blow to belief, to hope. To Putin’s strategy of dragging out the war without consequences. If Putin is insane, of course, it won’t change anything. But it will still further weaken Russia. And for a rational Putin, it might be a reason to move toward real negotiations. Or maybe not, we don’t know how deeply he fears “Russia and Russians without war.”

But one thing is clear: Putin will keep demanding Ukraine’s capitulation and rejecting real negotiations as long as Trump remains gentle and accommodating toward him. And the only correct negotiation strategy with the Russians, the one based on strength, was vividly demonstrated by the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Malyuk, on Sunday.

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About the author. Serhiy Fursa, investment expert and blogger.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.