Do Russia-Ukraine peace talks still make sense?

First, an immediate end to the war is possible. And this decision lies entirely in the hands of one person. A single statement from Putin on air was enough — and the Ukrainian government immediately responded.

Obviously, a war doesn't stop in an instant. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers in combat conditions can't simply halt within seconds.

War has inertia: even if a ceasefire is eventually achieved, it will take days or even weeks to bring the fighting to a complete stop. But the key point is — the world has seen that it's possible. And that there is only one person who doesn't want it.

Second, it became clear that what matters to Putin is the negotiation process itself — not the outcome, but the mere fact that talks are happening. As soon as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the U.S. might withdraw from the talks, Putin began speaking about a truce.

His demands are not military but political. “Denazification,” “demilitarization,” and a “new security architecture” cannot be achieved with missiles or by capturing square kilometers. They can only be imposed through pressure at the negotiating table. That’s why Putin doesn’t want the negotiation process to cease — something this weekend has confirmed.

At the same time, the internal conflicts in the U.S. administration give the Russian leader hope that, at some point, the Americans will come to the table and start discussing the very issues Putin used to launch this war.

Disagreements over Ukraine within Trump’s team are becoming increasingly apparent. While Witkoff echoes Kremlin narratives about "territories where Russians live," Marco Rubio emphasizes that Ukraine is a sovereign nation with the right to independently decide which security agreements to sign and with whom. In other words, Russia should not be concerned about who guarantees Ukraine’s security or what commitments they make. Clearly, this completely rules out any talks about "demilitarization."

This situation creates uncertainty for all sides: for Ukrainians and Europeans who want a just end to the war, and for Putin, who understands — it's either make a deal now or never.

Honestly, the chances that Putin will agree to end the war right now seem very slim. But if that doesn’t happen, the U.S. will most likely pull out of the talks. What follows is complete uncertainty. The president will lose personal interest in the process — just like during Donald Trump’s previous term, when Ukraine policy was handled not by him directly, but by his advisors and the State Department.

This fear — the fear of losing his last chance to talk to the Americans — may be the only reason why the negotiations still hold any potential.

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About the author. Mykola Kniazhytskyi, journalist, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.