Why Russia’s cruise missile production doesn’t translate into larger strikes

Defense Express explains this. 

Over the past three days, Russia launched 64 cruise missiles at Ukraine — 55 on the night of May 25 and 9 more the next night. The Ukrainian Air Force says 45 of those were intercepted.

Though Russia used rare Tu-160 strategic bombers during these attacks — the first time since November 2024 — this was the only combined cruise missile strike so far in May. The last similar attack was on April 24.

Overall, in 2025, Russia has carried out just five major cruise missile strikes, using a total of 191 missiles. This is far below what would be expected given their reported monthly production rates, including an estimated 53 Kh-101 missiles each month, plus additional Kalibr and R-500 cruise missiles.

Even assuming stockpiling, the math doesn’t add up, analysts note. A ‘show of force’ attack using just 64 missiles suggests constraints beyond just supply.

One explanation is a shortage of launch platforms. Naval Kalibr missiles are harder to launch due to risks of moving ships and damaged submarines. In the air, Russia appears to be conserving its aging Tu-95MS bombers, often launching just 1–3 missiles per sortie instead of the usual 6–8.

The Engels airbase strike on March 20 likely damaged key infrastructure used to prepare missile strikes, forcing Russia to base aircraft farther away — at Olenya and Belaya — which increases strain on the bombers.

There are also doubts about the number of usable missile carriers. Russia is believed to have 40–50 Tu-95MS bombers on paper, but not all are flight-ready. Of the 13–18 known Tu-160s, at least six are undergoing repairs.

In reality, Russia may only have a handful of aircraft fully capable of launching these strikes, analysts say.

In short, despite high missile output, the real limit on Russia’s cruise missile use may be the shrinking number of launch-capable bombers and the difficulty of organizing large-scale strikes.