Why Russia dropped its push for Black Sea truce: military expert explains

Military expert Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network and deputy director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Research, shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"I’m not counting the First World War, when the Black Sea squadron was actually sunk, or the Second World War, where the situation was different. But aside from these periods, Russia has been trying to establish full dominance over the Black Sea since the time of Peter the Great. Sometimes they succeeded, sometimes they didn’t. There were wars with Turkey and so on. But the point is, in the 19th and 20th centuries, Russia dominated this region," Samus explained.

"Especially after 2014, Russia aimed to turn the Black Sea into what they called a 'Russian lake' — and, in many ways, they succeeded. They took full control of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. Just look at what happened on November 25, 2018, when they attacked Ukrainian ships in international waters. It was a blatant act of aggression, and the international community did nothing in response," he noted.

Since 2022, a very clear pattern has emerged: Ukraine controls the western part of the Black Sea, and Russia controls the eastern part. Ukrainian naval drones and cruise missiles operate in the eastern part, while the Russians can’t enter the western part without getting attacked by Ukraine's drones. That’s why they stay in the east, mostly near the Russian coast, Samus said.

During negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Russia attempted to change this situation.

"They tried to push some kind of agreement on a so-called grain corridor... But we don’t need a grain corridor. We already ensure safe passage with our naval drones, along with our partners in Romania and Bulgaria, and we have no trouble reaching the Bosphorus. The Russians, however, want to change this. They want back into the western Black Sea, so they propose: 'Let’s establish a Black Sea Corridor, the UN, we’ll inspect the ships.' But why should the Russians inspect our ships? Our naval drones handle security just fine," Samus pointed out.

The Ukrainian delegation responded immediately. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov wrote on social media that Ukraine is open to discussions about the Black Sea, but with one firm condition — a "red line": Russian warships cannot enter the western part of the sea. Everything else is negotiable.

According to Samus, this is when Russia immediately lost interest in the deal — because their real goal was to overturn the current situation.

• On March 25, the second round of talks between Ukraine and the United States, with Russian participation, took place in Riyadh. The main discussions focused on securing shipping routes in the Black Sea and preventing attacks on the energy system.
• That same day, the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of Europe adopted a resolution supporting efforts for a ceasefire in Ukraine while emphasizing the inviolability of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.