Why is Kellogg visiting Belarus amid global turmoil?

The author of the Resurgam channel and foreign relations expert shared his thoughts on why Kellogg recently visited Belarus.

Kellogg, U.S. presidential envoy on Ukraine and Russia, visited Minsk against a backdrop of rising geopolitical uncertainty. His timing, just ahead of the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises, is no coincidence, the author believes.

According to Resurgam, the drills, set for September, could mask hybrid operations by Moscow in the Baltics. “The goal is to test the limits of NATO’s Article 5,” the post notes, warning that even small provocations could undermine trust within the Alliance.

Another risk is that Russia may use Belarus as a launchpad for renewed attacks on Ukraine. While President Lukashenko reportedly wants to move the exercises deeper into Belarus to avoid escalation, Kremlin pressure could override his intentions. “Kellogg likely came to gauge Lukashenko’s stance and offer a communication window if Moscow pushes too far,” the report says.

The second reason for Kellogg’s visit might be to make sure NATO’s eastern flank stays stable amid the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. “The goal is to avoid being drawn into multiple fronts,” Resurgam explains, especially if Moscow sees the Middle East crisis as a chance to sow chaos in Europe.

The third objective involves easing tensions between Belarus and neighboring NATO countries. Lukashenko has escalated threats, including talk of nuclear weapons, that, while often empty, still alarm nearby states. Kellogg’s approach contrasts with previous envoys: “Instead of pressure, he’s starting from the edges — reducing threats to build toward a broader ceasefire in Ukraine.”

While major breakthroughs remain unlikely due to Moscow’s entrenched position, Kellogg’s visit signals Washington’s effort to defuse tension before it flares into something larger.

• The joint Russian-Belarusian military drills Zapad-2025, set for mid-September in Belarus, are raising concerns in Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Poland.