Zapad-2025: Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland — who’s targeted by Russian-Belarusian military drills?

Contents

1. What we know about the Zapad-2025 drills
2. Why these drills are a threat to Ukraine
3. What worries Lithuania and Poland

While these maneuvers are officially part of routine Belarusian and Russian military exercises, their timing, scale, and recent history have analysts and officials on high alert. Espreso breaks down the key details, possible threats, and expert views on potential scenarios.

What we know about the Zapad-2025 drills

Zapad-2025 is a joint strategic exercise by Russia and Belarus, held every two years under the "Union State" framework since 2009.

According to the Belarusian Defense Ministry, planning began in October 2024. The active phase is expected in mid-September 2025.

Officially, over 13,000 troops will take part, but analysts, including Estonian intelligence, estimate the real number could be as high as 100,000, including support staff and reserves.

Notably, in late May, Belarus announced a downsizing of the drills and moved core maneuvers deeper into its territory, away from NATO borders (Poland and Lithuania).

Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin described this as a “sign of peaceful intent” and a willingness to “ease tensions in the region.” But skepticism remains as Russia has previously used similar exercises to mask preparations for war.

For example, the 2022 Allied Resolve drills preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine via Belarus. In 2021, Zapad drills involving 200,000 troops helped stage Russian forces before the attack. These precedents make Zapad-2025 a serious concern for Ukraine and NATO.

Meanwhile, analysts at AviVector recently tracked heavy Russian military transport flights, including Il-76 and An-124 planes, bringing cargo to Belarus, especially the Machulishchy airbase. This may signal troop buildup, though officials claim it’s just exercise logistics.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War believe the reduced scale and relocation of drills may be a strategy to project cooperation and distract from Russia’s limited military capacity outside Ukraine.

Why these drills are a threat to Ukraine

Belarus borders northern Ukraine — including Volyn, Rivne, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Chernihiv — making it a convenient launchpad for potential attacks. As noted earlier, Ukraine is seriously concerned because Russia has a history of using military exercises as cover for real offensives. Moscow has repeatedly masked troop buildups with drills while publicly denying any plans to invade.

Recently, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that Russia might be plotting “something” under the guise of Zapad-2025 and called for readiness for various scenarios, including possible strikes on Ukraine, Lithuania, or Poland.

“Look at Belarus — this summer Russia is preparing something there under the guise of military drills. That’s how its attacks usually start. But where will it strike this time? I don’t know. Ukraine? Lithuania? Poland? God forbid! But we must all be ready,” Zelenskyy said.

According to Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, Russia could use the drills to transfer more troops to Belarus, increasing the threat level. No strike formations have been spotted at the border so far, but the presence of Russian forces in Belarus already poses a risk.

“We need to monitor how many forces Russia plans to bring in during the active phase of the exercises, because provocations or other actions can’t be ruled out. Again, this direction remains a threat to us,” Demchenko said.

Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi also warned that the drills could serve as a pretext for forming strike groups.

“All drills have a goal. One of them is to covertly create offensive troop formations. Exercises are the best way to redeploy, move forces, focus on certain directions, and build up a strike group. That’s exactly how the 2022 invasion started,” Syrskyi said.

Maksym Zhorin, Deputy Commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, agreed that Russia may use the exercises to prepare for a new offensive, though he believes the main aim is to divert Ukrainian forces.

“There is a threat, although Moscow likely hasn’t made a final decision yet. Things will be clearer as the drills approach. It’s obvious they want to make Ukraine move some of its troops north, weakening other areas. If Russia sees a weak spot there, it might try to break through the border,” Zhorin said.

Military analyst Ihor Romanenko told TSN that Belarusian troops will likely play the main role in the drills, since Russia is stretched thin due to the war. A joint offensive remains a possibility, as Putin continues trying to pull Lukashenko into direct combat, much like he has with North Korea.

“Lukashenko’s been 'maneuvering' for four years. He helps Putin with weapons, gear, airfields, training centers, and even treats wounded Russians in Belarusian hospitals. But that’s not enough for Putin. After his success with North Korea, he’s trying to drag Belarus into actual combat. Lukashenko is resisting because he knows how that could end for him personally,” Romanenko said.

Still, General Mykola Malomuzh, former head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, told Espreso that a repeat of 2022 is not going to happen.

“Back then, we didn’t have strong defensive positions along the border, or enough missile artillery and special forces. Our people warned: ‘Block the forest routes that let Russian troops move in.’ It was a huge mistake. But that’s been corrected. Now we have permanent, fortified positions. Our defenses are strong. We monitor all movements of Russian and Belarusian troops, we won't let them make alternative moves in real time. Moreover, with 1,300 km already active on the eastern front, Russia doesn’t have the capacity, really, to open another front in Belarus, that’s another 2,000 km, they simply don’t have the resources. But there could be provocations from Russian or Belarusian special forces. The Belarusian army isn’t ready for war. And I don’t think it’ll join the fight,” he said.

What worries Lithuania and Poland

Western intelligence has long warned that Russia could target the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland. These military drills may be preparation for such operations.

Recently, the head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, said there is “concrete evidence” that Russia is planning an attack on NATO territory because it doesn’t believe Article 5 of the alliance will be upheld. Putin, he said, is interested in 'testing" this theory.

Roman Bezsmertnyi, Ukraine’s former ambassador to Belarus (2010–2011), said on Espreso TV that Zapad-2025 isn’t aimed at Ukraine, but at the West.

“A group of troops is being formed in the Belarusian direction, with Russia planning a strike on the Baltic states. It won’t be a strike on Ukraine. Russia knows a strike on Ukraine won’t change anything for them now. The Baltic direction is what matters. And this is critical for NATO, the EU, and European security,” Bezsmertnyi said.

Dmytro Dovhopolyi, a historian and former UN Secretariat employee (1987–2019), also pointed to the Suwałki Corridor as a likely target in an interview with Espreso.

“I’d expect either armed provocations or some diplomatic moves there,” he noted.

Russia has long shown interest in the Suwałki Corridor, a narrow stretch between Poland and Lithuania that borders Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region. It’s a key strategic zone for NATO, but Russia has ambitions to link Kaliningrad with Belarus by land (Kaliningrad being the former Koenigsberg, annexed from Germany after WWII).

Some analysts believe Russia could use the drills to build up forces capable of seizing this corridor, effectively cutting the Baltic states off from NATO. Repeated threats from Russia’s Foreign Ministry to Estonia have only added to these concerns.

“Latvia expects between 100,000 and 150,000 troops there. But everything depends on the war in Ukraine. If there’s a ceasefire, they could move troops from the Ukrainian front to Belarus and start training conscripts because both conscripts and reservists are likely to be involved in the exercises,” said Major General Andis Dilāns, Deputy State Secretary of Latvia’s Ministry of Defense, in an interview with Radio NV.

Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas said Lithuanian and NATO intelligence are watching the situation closely and haven’t identified new threats so far. But that may be a public reassurance since, at the same time, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are preparing mass evacuation plans and sharing risk data. NATO has also increased its air presence in Lithuania to monitor developments.

Interestingly, in response to Zapad-2025, Poland plans to hold joint military exercises with NATO allies, preparing to respond to it adequately.

“This will be a response proportional to the scale of Russian-Belarusian troop movements. We need to show strength and unity,” said Poland’s Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk.

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya also warned that Zapad-2025 could pose a threat to NATO’s eastern flank.

So, many are concerned the exercises could be used as cover for actual aggression, especially given Russia’s past actions and Belarus’s proximity to Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. Despite Minsk’s talk of “peace,” most experts are warning of real risks for the Suwałki Corridor and northern Ukraine. Putin is always looking for weak spots in the defense line, and moves in when he finds one. NATO and Ukraine are stepping up monitoring, securing borders, and preparing for possible provocations.