What will make Americans see that Ukraine is ready for peace?

This sentiment came not only from the president himself but also from his inner circle: Rubio, Hegseth, Waltz, and Vance all echoed their leader's stance.

However, this raises an entirely logical question: what could be seen as the indicator of such a strong desire for peace by the Americans?

Retreat, surrender, and capitulating to all of Russia's demands are immediately off the table – Ukraine will agree to this, even if the Americans desperately want it.

That is why I have another theory based on a general content analysis of the U.S. administration's statements. 

Remember how Trump used to respond to Ukraine’s requests for weapons. It was typically a flat refusal, justified by the argument that "it will prolong the war," or, when there was an agreement, it was framed as "for a strong negotiating position." In the past two weeks, however, a new, more populist argument has emerged – "the war would have ended long ago if it weren’t for our weapons. And in any case, Ukraine would be doomed with or without us." Alongside this, we’ve seen a growing avoidance of the issue of guarantees, outright rejection of new budget considerations in the legislative branch, and even blackmail by threatening to suspend aid.

This all leads to the interim conclusion that for Trump, the indicator of Ukraine’s desire for peace will be the moment it stops requesting weapons, even under the banner of "peace through strength." Trump once supported this approach, but now, it clearly seems inconvenient for him (perhaps due to pressure from Moscow or his own reluctance to navigate the complex and challenging path of normal diplomacy). For him, the situation appears straightforward: if Ukraine wants weapons, it’s signaling a desire for the continuation of the war. If it rejects them, it wants peace.

Now, imagine how this will complicate any future efforts to negotiate viable conditions for peace talks. It also underscores how much more crucial it is for Europe to take a more active role (something that, fortunately, seems to be happening).

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About the author. Oleksandr Kraiev, expert at the Foreign Policy Council Ukrainian Prism

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.