What signs suggest Putin is likely to accept 30-day ceasefire proposal?

If the Russian army manages to capture Sudzha, then Putin will agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Even without the complete liberation of the Kursk region, the capture of Sudzha alone would be enough for Russian propaganda to frame the situation as a victory for Russia.

Additionally, Putin desperately wants Trump to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade. For this symbolic image, he would support any illusion. What happens after the parade, or when the fighting resumes, will no longer matter to Trump, meaning it will not damage their relationship.

Moreover, U.S. negotiators have already helped Russia secure two key advantages.

First, the U.S. accepted the Kremlin’s version of the ceasefire, which applies only to the front lines but does not include stopping long-range strikes on rear areas — what was previously called a ceasefire in the sky and at sea.

Second, the U.S. envisions a ceasefire without security guarantees for Ukraine, which benefits Russia. Even worse, the ceasefire does not include military aid that could enable Ukraine to deliver a strong counterstrike if Russia resumes hostilities. Furthermore, it lacks independent monitoring of the front line — there are no NATO military observers involved.

Finally, the visit earlier this week by OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu to Moscow and his meeting with Sergei Lavrov should also be viewed as part of Russia’s preparation for a ceasefire. Those familiar with the situation will remember the infamous “blindness” of OSCE observers from 2014 to 2022. Many Russian spies worked within OSCE monitoring groups, often providing targeting information for Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions.

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About the author: Olha Len, journalist.

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