Wagner forces will not attack Ukraine from Belarus – military observer 

He expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"I will express my opinion based on the policy pursued by Alexander Lukashenko. The fact is that among all the political figures in the post-Soviet space, Lukashenko is probably the one who wants to enter into an armed conflict with Ukraine the least. Because he has got everything he dreamed of for many years of his rule. He now has the Russian market, all regions of the Russian Federation are fully open, all obstacles have been removed, and Belarusian goods are recognised as Russian. Lukashenko has also received huge investments in the development of Belarusian industry, so much money that he is still thinking about how to use it. Therefore, he will not give up this golden rain," the independent military observer said.

Aleksander Alesin believes that, based on the general direction of Alexander Lukashenko's policy, the Wagner group will not be used from the territory of Belarus against Ukraine.

"There is another important circumstance - Ukraine has created a very powerful defence line along the entire border with Belarus, and the terrain there is very unfavourable for the attacking party. Wagner's men are ordinary soldiers, perhaps very skilled, but they are not gods. And if they do fly, it will be on Russian or Belarusian helicopters, which will be easily met by Ukrainian air defence. From both a political and military point of view, we shouldn't expect any aggressive actions by the Wagner group against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in the near future," Alesin concluded.

How the Wagner soldiers ended up in Belarus

After the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin announced the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.

On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, Wagner mercenaries  who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there. However, Lukashenko emphasized that he expects the mercenaries to help in the defense of Belarus, without specifying the potential source of the country's perceived threat.

On June 29, a satellite recorded the construction of a tent camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev region of Belarus, and on July 3, Russian media published a photo of an alleged Wagner camp.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On July 15, a large convoy of Wagner PMC fighters arrived in Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed the information.