Wagner fighters may capture Belarusian nuclear plant to threaten Lithuania – military expert Grabsky

He expressed this opinion on the Espreso TV channel.

"No one can rule out the possibility that the members of the Wagner PMC could seize the Belarusian nuclear power plant. This is a very likely scenario after they organized a mutiny in Russia. And you can only imagine what the reaction would be, because this nuclear power plant is located near Lithuania. This could be used as an element of blackmail. That is why the Wagner mercenaries are treated very seriously and with great caution in this area," Grabsky explained.

The expert believes that the Wagner fighters can be used for provocations against Poland and the Baltic states.

"Let's not forget that Valerii Zaluzhnyi recently visited the Rivne nuclear power plant to check the situation and keep it under control. Therefore, it will be too early to write off the Wagner forces. They can work like a joker for Putin. It is clear that from a military point of view, they will not succeed. However, they can draw some blood from the security forces of Poland and the Baltic states," he added.

How the Wagner soldiers ended up in Belarus

After the mutiny of Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in late June, the Kremlin announced the relocation of Wagner mercenaries to Belarus.

On June 27, self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, Wagner mercenaries  who arrived with him will not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed there. However, Lukashenko emphasized that he expects the mercenaries to help in the defense of Belarus, without specifying the potential source of the country's perceived threat.

On June 29, a satellite recorded the construction of a tent camp near Asipovichy in the Mogilev region of Belarus, and on July 3, Russian media published a photo of an alleged Wagner camp.

On July 11, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense stated that the Wagner mercenaries would train the Belarusian army.

On July 14, media reported that training sessions with units of the territorial troops were taking place near Asipovichy (Belarus), where Wagner PMC fighters were acting as instructors in some military disciplines.

On the morning of July 15, a large convoy of cars and trucks with license plates of the so-called DPR and LPR was spotted in Belarus. Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service confirmed that those were mercenaries of the Wagner PMC.

On Sunday, July 16, the Belarusian Hajun monitoring group reported that two flags - of Russia and the Wagner PMC - had been installed at the checkpoint on the border between Belarus and Russia.

Wagner Group announced that on July 30, their main base in the Russian Federation, located in the village of Molkino in Krasnodar Krai, would be closed.

On July 19, Wagner PMC financier Yevgeny Prigozhin addressed Wagner fighters in Belarus, calling the situation at the front a "disgrace" and urging mercenaries to "wait for the moment to show their full potential."

Later, on July 23, self-appointed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko announced the desire of the mercenaries from the Russian Wagner PMC to "go on an excursion" to Poland. The same day, it was reported that the tenth column of Wagner's mercenaries, which included at least ten pieces of equipment, had arrived in Belarus.

The ISW stated that there is no evidence that Wagner's mercenaries in Belarus have the heavy weapons necessary for a serious offensive against Ukraine or Poland.

On July 25, the 11th column of Wagner's mercenaries arrived in Belarus, this time with armored vehicles. The convoy included at least 29 vehicles. It was also revealed  who led them in Belarus.

On July 27, the National Resistance Center reported that Wagner PMC units were looking for people in Belarus who were ready to fight against Lithuania and Poland.