Russian elite turmoil: what you need to know

In Russia's elites, certain turbulent processes are beginning, linked to the shrinking financial pie, an unprecedented redistribution of property in modern history, and a rapidly expanding circle of those who can be imprisoned today (only 20 people from Putin's inner circle, and the middle and upper ranks of the FSB and FSO remain untouchable). Of course, there will be no change of power in Russia tomorrow, but the processes that have been launched inspire a certain optimism.

Here are the main conclusions from the study:

• Despite Putin's own statements, the topic of power transit in Russia is taboo. At the same time, the elites have already begun to think and act in the logic of transit (preparation for transit).

• The key factors that accelerated the transit logic are the shrinking budget pie and the unfolding of mass nationalization/reprivatization, which in monetary terms is more extensive than the privatization of the 1990s.

• It is important to note that the key figure in nationalization is Prosecutor General Krasnov. However, Krasnov has not gained political subjectivity. 

• Today, we can clearly say that the army has not gained subjectivity, and the prospects for acquiring this political subjectivity are minimalistic.

• Big business has definitively lost political subjectivity and is increasingly becoming a supplicant for state budget subsidies.

• De facto, there is a dual power in the FSB, where the first deputy head of the FSB, Korolev, directly carries out tasks set by Putin, bypassing his immediate superior, Bortnikov. At the same time, the FSB maintains its main role in Russia's repressive system. Currently, there is simply no presidential candidate from the service. And, based on Putin's position on the duumvirate, such a candidate may not appear in the medium term. If everything develops according to this scenario, we will see a struggle between different influence groups within the FSB on the side of various groups participating in the transit.

• Today, a system is being built in which only a few influence groups have significant political power: these are the tandems of Patrushev-Chemezov, Kovalchuks-Kiriyenko, and probably Igor Sechin.

• Putin's family is not formalized into any political group, but with a high degree of probability, we can assume that the first electoral cycle of power transit will take place under the slogan "We continue the course of Vladimir Putin," and therefore the family will be an important part of this transit.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.