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OPINION

Putin partially confirms Bild's scenario

17 January, 2024 Wednesday
19:55

At the forum "Small Homeland – the Strength of Russia," the Russian dictator made some rather interesting statements, in addition to the joke about moldy cheese and sausages

In particular, he was outraged that the Baltic states were "throwing Russian speakers abroad" and that this was in Russia's national interest. A hint of an attack "to protect Russian speakers"?

It is worth noting that this hint coincides with one of the scenarios for the outbreak of war in the Bild publication. Perhaps the publication is indeed based on a leak from European intelligence services, as the described development of events is not fantastic. Perhaps the publication is based on a "secret document" prepared by the FSB or GRU of the Russian Federation for intimidation purposes. And the version that this is just "one of the legends of the upcoming German or NATO military exercises" looks less and less plausible. It looks too much like a real possibility. Although, in the end, one does not exclude the other: legends often use probable developments rather than entirely fictional circumstances.

"But the general result of this point is that the Kremlin is indeed assessing the possibility of using Baltic Russian speakers as a pretext for an attack, if it is deemed profitable."

The strange coughing (he coughed 10 times) during the stupid remarks about Ukraine just added to the degree of nonsense. For example, the withdrawal of troops from Kyiv was a "sign" from the Kremlin that Putin was seriously ready to negotiate, and not the invading forces’ flight from the Armed Forces and the Territorial Defense Forces (it has already been proven that Russia suffered the greatest losses at the time of the deepest occupation of our territories at the beginning of the full-scale invasion). Obviously, this lie simply would not come out of Putin's throat without a lot of coughing.

And another statement by Putin: "Ukraine does not want peace talks." I have identified the main message here: "The longer Ukraine stays at war with Russia, the less territory it will have and the less willing Putin will be to negotiate, so negotiate now." Given Putin's constant habit of lying, this can be seen as an admission that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the occupation forces to hold the occupied territory. And Putin, despite all the dosing of information for him, fears that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will gradually push Russian troops out of Ukraine. Especially if long-range missiles allow to destroy the military logistics of the frontline zone and Russian border regions: providing the occupation units with the most necessary supplies for survival and for shelling.

Source

About the author. Oleksiy Holobutskyi, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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