Can Ukraine survive without U.S.: what aid to expect in war against Russia

As negotiations between Ukraine and Russia falter, the U.S. increasingly appears either passive or favoring Moscow, writes Ukrainian military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko for oboz.ua media.

Despite claims of "progress," the Trump administration’s approach has been inconsistent — pressuring Ukraine while offering concessions to Russia. This raises the question: If the U.S. isn't an effective mediator, does Ukraine truly need its involvement?  

Historically, Washington has leveraged aid as a tool of influence, but its impact is waning. Since 2022, European military assistance to Ukraine has exceeded U.S. contributions, and Ukraine’s domestic defense industry is rapidly expanding. Ukrainian arms production tripled in 2024, surpassing European and even some American capabilities in key areas.  

"For now, internal bureaucracy stands in the way of the right decisions, but Ukraine has enough resources to diversify aid from the U.S.—not only through European partners and a number of countries that remain out of the public eye but also by leveraging its own internal potential, which now needs an even greater push than before. Especially given how unreliable a partner the U.S. has become," Kovalenko says.

Meanwhile, Russia faces increasing attrition, struggling to sustain large-scale offensives. As Ukraine fortifies its defense sector and diversifies intelligence sources, U.S. withdrawal—while challenging—may accelerate Kyiv’s self-reliance and push Europe into a leadership role in sustaining Ukraine’s war effort.  

The bottom line: While U.S. support remains valuable, Ukraine's survival no longer depends on it. 

"In 2022, 2023, and 2024, I would never have said that Ukraine could stand against Russia without the U.S. But now, I believe our country must defend its position firmly and decisively, regardless of the consequences of an unpredictable and offensive Trump. The cards are in our hands now, not in the hands of the U.S., and certainly not Russia," Kovalenko concludes.

Instead, a shift toward European-backed defense initiatives and internal production could redefine the war’s power dynamics, ensuring Ukraine’s resilience regardless of Washington’s stance.

• Ukrainian Armed Forces Territorial Defense serviceman Oleksandr Musienko noted that European countries still look to Washington and await approval from the United States.