Ukrainian Armed Forces' breakthrough, Russian army's encirclement may lead to Russian collapse in Kherson region - military expert 

This is the assessment of the Ukrainian army's actions near Kherson by a military analyst, professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University Phillips O'Brien, BBC reports.

Ukrainian officials reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces broke through the defensive lines of the Russian army in the Kherson area and are actively shelling Russian military facilities and supply routes. At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukraine's offensive has failed.

Based on an analysis of data from open sources, Phillips O'Brien assesses the situation as follows:

This is a pre-planned operation, as the Ukrainian army has stockpiled ammunition before it and has begun to engage in confrontation with Russian forces along the entire front line in the region. At the same time, there are signs of a coordinated campaign to inform about what is happening in the mass media.

Since the attacks are taking place all along the demarcation line in the Kherson region, Ukraine's actions look like a series of probing operations designed to find weak points in the defense, points where weaker or demoralized troops are deployed.

The long-range fire on the bridges continues and this shows that Ukraine intends to prevent the Russian troops from leaving - especially with the equipment. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also trying to prevent the supply of the Russian group.

The expert writes that he is inclined to be very cautious about the expectations of a Ukrainian breakthrough and the encirclement of Russian troops - unless their rapid collapse occurs.

"Probably [it is worth waiting for] more active efforts to exhaust and try to find gaps. But Ukraine will not seek to expose its troops to danger if the Russians will fight fiercely", O'Brien believes.