November 29–December 6 live war map: critical escalation at front, encirclement threat for Myrnohrad, Siversk

As a result, in November, the Russian army occupied 505 sq km, which is the largest indicator for autumn, but average since the beginning of the major offensive in May. 

Dynamics of occupation, photo: Espreso

In the last month of autumn, Russian forces fulfilled the tasks set before them – to enter cities before winter. Through fighting, they consolidated in all cities that were located near the front. Fighting has already begun in Lyman, Siversk, Kostiantynivka and continues in Kupiansk, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The last town was Huliaipole. To break through to it, a 150-thousand-strong Russian army in November made a rapid breakthrough 16 km deep into Zaporizhzhia region. Zaporizhzhia accounts for 40% of the territory occupied in November. At the same time, only 16% of battles took place here, which indicates relatively easier advancement for Russian forces, and therefore inadequately prepared defense on the Ukrainian side.

Dynamics of occupation, photo: Espreso

In second place is the Kharkiv border area, where due to the absence of defensive lines they can cross the border without heavy battles, but have no advancement further than 4-5 km deep into Ukraine. Another 11% of occupation is the territory around Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and it is here that over 30% of all clashes on the front occur daily. All other sections of the front experienced insignificant changes. This especially concerns the Dnipropetrovsk region, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces not only hold the blow, but also conduct local counteroffensives.

Huliaipole crisis continues

After the breakthrough to Huliaipole and the start of fighting on its southeastern outskirts, Putin's army focused on expanding its bridgehead between the Yanchur and Haichur rivers. Currently, this 16x16 sq km bridgehead has not yet reached the Huliaipole-Pokrovske highway. Although the road itself is no longer suitable for logistics, together with the villages on it, it is the first line of defense. Behind the road flows the Haichur River, and behind it on the heights another, but so far the last line of defense has been built. Russian forces approached the road closest in the area of the villages of Dobropillia and Danylivka. Fighting has been ongoing in Danylivka for several weeks now. Thus the Russians are marking the vectors of their future offensives. They aimed at the settlement of Ternuvate, where Ukrainian fortifications are located. However, this fortification is weaker than in Huliaipole or Pokrovske, and therefore it is through Ternuvate that they want to continue their offensive in Zaporizhzhia. However, these are still quite distant prospects.

Currently, the battle for Huliaipole has begun. The Haichur River divides the city into two parts. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are forming a front line on the right bank, and Russian forces are now beginning to infiltrate the eastern part. However, a weak point in the defense of Huliaipole may be the fact that since 2022 Russian forces have been present on the right bank of the Haichur as well, particularly in the Marfopol area. And at some point they may launch an offensive on the city from the south as well. However, this is unlikely to happen before they encircle the city from the north. Therefore, the defense of Ternuvate will be decisive for holding Huliaipole.

Dnipropetrovsk region holds the blow

Despite the fact that Russian forces marked their presence near almost all key settlements on the Oleksandrivka front, they cannot consolidate either in Orestopol, Oleksiivka or Novoleksandrivka. And even more, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a series of successful counterattacks in the direction of Sosnivka, which slowed down the offensive on Velykomykhailivka.

In fact, the front in the Dnipropetrovsk region runs along the Vovcha River, which in autumn became a serious obstacle to Russian advancement. Thanks to fog, they managed to rush into Novopavlivka. And although the Defense Forces destroyed most of the assault troops, a certain number are still trying to survive by hiding in basements. In addition, they can send new ‘kamikazes’ to Novopavlivka, as they created a small bridgehead on the right bank of the Vovcha River in the Dachne area. At the same time, the Ukrainian army recently cleared a similar bridgehead in the village of Ivanivka and even managed to force the river and consolidate on the left bank.

Pokrovsk becomes the new Bakhmut

No one has any doubt anymore that the Russians will someday capture Pokrovsk. However, the Defense Forces are doing everything to turn it into a large Russian cemetery. Russian forces wave after wave cross the railway and advance on the northern part of the city, where Ukrainian forces hold positions. A significant part of the assault troops are destroyed and therefore they send new ones. As long as the Armed Forces of Ukraine hold the flanks in Hryshyne and Myrnohrad, this can continue for quite a long time.

That is why Russian forces concentrated their offensives on the village of Rivne, which is located between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad and is a logistics center. From the central districts of Pokrovsk captured this week, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to break through to Rivne from the south as well, but Ukrainian forces repel the strikes. Similarly, they attacked from the north from the side of Chervonyi Lyman.

Fire encirclement of Myrnohrad

In certain sections in the Rodynske area, the distance between the gray zone, where Russian troops have already been recorded, is less than 1 km. This indicates that there is almost no ground connection with Myrnohrad, and all logistics are provided by ground and air drones.

Heavy urban fighting is ongoing in Myrnohrad itself. Russian forces continue to break through in the southern part of the city, in order to cut off the front section between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, where Defense Forces are still present in Sukhyi Yar and Novopavlivka. This would allow Russian forces to expand the offensive line on Rivne and will lead to the forced curtailment of Myrnohrad's defense, which will find itself without supply and surrounded. However, despite the obvious need to leave these southern positions, Ukrainian presence in them prevents the Russians from advancing rapidly further.

During the week, Russian forces finally occupied 3 villages on the eastern outskirts of Myrnohrad: Balahan, Kozatske and Promin, and also broke through from Razine to the road between Myrnohrad and Novoekonomichne. This significantly complicated the situation for the defenders of Novoekonomichne and created a situation where they will be forced to withdraw to Myrnohrad, which will also strengthen the city's defensive capacity, although it will complicate the implementation of the plan to unblock logistics from the north.

End of the Dobropillia operation

Earlier, the Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through a corridor to Fedorivka. In case of continuing the offensive on Chervonyi Lyman and Razine and pushing Russian forces to the left bank of Kazenyi Torets, it would be possible to unblock Myrnohrad's logistics and hold the city's defense for a long time. But the situation in Novoekonomichne undermines this plan. The same is true of developments in the Dobropillia direction, where the Russians occupied Volodymyrivka and continued to advance on Shakhove and Sofiivka. Thus they are repeating their offensive between Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka, but without a rapid breakthrough. The Armed Forces of Ukraine also stopped the counteroffensive and switched to defense mode.

Russian troops are preparing to open the Sloviansk front

The situation on the Siversk and Lyman fronts has significantly worsened. Russian forces have local breakthroughs. And the gray zone has approached Sloviansk at a distance of 17 km.

Although fighting for Yampil continues, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gradually withdrawing from the city to the south. Meanwhile, small Russian assault groups are already attacking the villages of Ozerne and Dibrova, which are 5 km from Yampil. The road from Lyman to Siversk is finally cut, so now it is about the Russian Armed Forces wanting to bypass Lyman's defenders from the south and attack the city under forest cover.

Meanwhile, the situation around Siversk is rapidly deteriorating. They have brought their positions as close as possible to the city from the east. But so far Russian forces are not rushing to storm the city head-on, but are using the usual tactics of cutting off logistics. Recently they expanded their zone of control near Vyimka and advanced in the direction of the village of Sviato-Pokrovske, which is located on the last road leading to Siversk. They have not managed to consolidate here so far, but the trends are more than threatening. Considering Russian accumulation north of Siversk as well, an offensive on the city from 3 or all 4 sides may soon begin.

Liberation of central Kupiansk

While Putin again announces the complete occupation of Kupiansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to liberate the city block by block. After the de-occupation of southern districts, Ukrainian soldiers managed to break through from the west to the central streets. There is no talk yet of complete clearing of this part of the city, as this is quite a lengthy process, but the Defense Forces managed to turn the situation around and gradually they are moving to the north of the city, where local fighting is also already underway. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive between Kindrashivka and Radkivka has led to the fact that new Russian reinforcements to the city almost do not arrive.

Last battle for Vovchansk ruins

A new powerful Russian offensive on Vovchansk led to the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreating to the extreme southern and western quarters of the city, where there are no longer high-rise buildings. Russian forces occupied the entire central part and industrial quarters. The defense line built along the Vovcha River could not hold back the assaults of assault troops after Russian forces crossed the river and formed a bridgehead near the village of Synelnykove. This week, the right flank of Ukrainian defense also retreated in the village of Tykhe. Vovchansk is difficult to defend, since there is essentially no city as such anymore, it has been wiped off the face of the earth, and therefore the Armed Forces of Ukraine will gradually withdraw to other defensive positions.

The Russian plan is to connect the Vovchansk front with the bridgehead on the Oskil. Considering the failure in Kupiansk, they will probably redirect their forces here.

And yet Putin is in a hurry. Several times a month he announces the occupation of Kupiansk and Pokrovsk, which means time is pressing. Probably because his army will not withstand another six months of offensive at such a pace.

The maps were created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff, as well as from other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not maximally accurate and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.