November 8–12 live war map: Russian forces breach Zaporizhzhia defenses amidst stabilization in Pokrovsk, Kupiansk

Pokrovsk - two stabilization scenarios

Russian forces have established themselves throughout the southern part of Pokrovsk and are actively infiltrating the north through central districts, which have become an uncontrolled gray zone. Currently, the main battles are taking place in the industrial area and towards key logistical hubs. These battles will be decisive in determining how long Ukrainian forces can fight for Pokrovsk.

The main goal of the Russian army remains the same: to cut off logistics and encircle the city's defenders. Rodynske and Hryshyne are under attack from both infantry and guided bombs. However, the village of Rivne, located between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, is being targeted the most, as it currently serves as the main transport hub. 

A week ago, all attacks on logistics were repelled, and attempts at encirclement were thwarted. During this time, the invading Russian forces somewhat reduced their activity and focused on accumulating personnel. This is aided by fog and rainy weather, which neutralize the impact of drones. 

Ukrainian forces are clearing the northern areas of the city and preventing the Russian army from consolidating in the central areas, where counter-battles are ongoing. Recently, assault troops of the Skala Regiment passed through the entire city and recaptured the city council building from the Russians, where they raised the blue and yellow flag. 

Currently, two defense scenarios are being considered: either holding the front line along the main street, Defenders of Ukraine, or, if that fails, the railway track will become the next line of defense.

The consolidation of Russian forces in the southern quarter of Sonyachny and their advance into Novopavlivka and Hnativka further jeopardized the complete encirclement of our soldiers holding the southern defense line near the villages of Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar. Recently, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces managed to conduct rotation and evacuation of the wounded in Myrnohrad and likely its southern outskirts, which is extremely difficult under conditions of logistical collapse. 

The Russian army entered Myrnohrad from the southern districts of Kozatske and Promin and entrenched themselves near the spoil heaps. However, how long the Defense Forces can hold the city depends primarily on the battles in the Rivne and Rodynske areas. Without logistics, Ukrainian forces will have to surrender the city even without intense street fighting.

In Kupiansk, which Putin allegedly captured a month ago, the situation has not only stabilized but also improved. Unlike in Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces now control the routes through which the Russian army enters the city. However, the key issue for eliminating the threat of Kupiansk's occupation was not so much fire control as the physical severing of this umbilical cord, which winds along the right bank of the Oskil and enters the city through the village of Radkivka. 

Kupiansk - Russian forces trapped

Recently, the Defense Forces launched an offensive and advanced between the villages of Radkivka and Kivsharivka towards the Oskil River. To reach the river and completely cut off logistics, we have less than 2 km left to break through. If Ukrainian forces manage to consolidate here, the destruction of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups, blocked in the city, will be a matter of time. 

Currently, the Russian army is trying to move through the districts of Kupiansk to avoid complete elimination and is shifting from north to south. Previously, they managed to enter 80% of the city, but now they control 20-30% of Kupiansk, while the Defense Forces hold another 30% and are actively clearing the gray zone. It is still too early to talk about the complete clearing of the city, but the disappearance of "green zones" and the transformation of the Oskil into a transparent and impassable border will accelerate the process.

Russian forces at the gates of Huliaipole

The encirclement of Huliaipole is already on the horizon. Over the past two weeks, Russian forces have managed to completely break through our defenses, built along the Yanchur River. Initially, they occupied villages located on the river bank: Pavlivka, Uspenivka, Novomykolaivka, and Novovasylivske, but then the Russian army broke through 12 km and captured another 5 villages: Nove, Solodke, Novouspenivske, Yablukove, and Rivnopillia. The latter was the last obstacle on the way to Huliaipole. Now, the Russian army has less than 7 km to go to the outskirts of the city, and 8.5 km to the Huliaipole – Pokrovske highway. The Russian army has entered operational space and can develop an offensive in any direction.

This section of the front, not Pokrovsk, is currently the most successful for the Russian army and a failure for the Defense Forces. In 3 months, the Russian army here managed to occupy over 250 sq km. And in a year and 3 months since the fall of Vuhledar, the Russian army has advanced over 70 km to the west. If this trend continues, they will reach Zaporizhzhia next year, having collapsed all our defenses in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

Given the steppe landscape and the absence of fortified defense lines beyond Rivnopillia, we may witness the beginning of street battles for Huliaipole and the collapse of our defenses in the Zelenyi Hai area within a few weeks. However, knowing the tactics of the Russian army, before launching an assault, they will cross the highway to Pokrovske and encircle the city, cutting off other logistical routes. 

Simultaneously, Russian forces are trying to approach Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region, but for several weeks in a row, they have been unable to capture the villages of Yehorivka and Vyshneve, which have effectively become the last line of defense in the interfluve of the Vovcha and Yanchur rivers. Therefore, the Russian army is looking for bypass routes and breaking through to Novooleksandrivka, Oleksiivka, and recently managed to enter the streets of Orestopil, which is located close to another of our fortified areas in Velykomykhailivka.

Thus, although advances in the Dnipropetrovsk region are occurring at a much slower pace than in Zaporizhzhia, the Russian army has already approached our key defensive centers, which they will try to break in the coming months. The encirclement of Huliaipole could also negatively affect this, as it will allow the Russian army to advance further beyond our defense lines.

Maps are created based on information received from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff, as well as from other open and verified sources. At the same time, the maps are not maximally accurate and only conditionally reflect trends in the combat zone.