Ukraine sues Iran for downing UIA plane: details, versions, "Russian trace"

On the night of January 8, 2020, a Boeing 737-800 NG plane of Ukraine International Airlines, en route to Kyiv, crashed after taking off from Tehran Airport. There were 176 passengers from 7 countries on board, 11 of whom were Ukrainian citizens. All of them died.

On January 11, 2020, the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces admitted that the Ukrainian plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile. The airliner was mistakenly identified as an enemy object after it made a sharp turn toward the military center of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“Notably, the responsibility for the downing of the Ukrainian airliner was not claimed by official Tehran, but by the military and political formation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is essentially a "state within a state." This left the official Iran with room for diplomatic maneuver, shifting the responsibility to the IRGC, while promoting the version of internal disputes between the secular and theocratic (spiritual) authorities of the country.”

However, many questions immediately arose about the IRGC's official version that the UIA plane was shot down due to human error and that it was unintentional.

First, the IRGC's statement that the operator of the Tor-M1 missile system confused a civilian aircraft with a cruise missile or a US fighter jet was a deliberate misinformation of the international community.

The fact is that Tomahawk cruise missiles, which have been used in numerous military conflicts since their adoption, fly at the lowest possible altitude (5 meters above the sea surface) thanks to a developed system of positioning (GPS), control (DSMACN, TOA), and a three-dimensional terrain correction system (TERCOM). At the time of the downing, the Ukrainian aircraft had reached an altitude of 2,400 meters.

Secondly, the flight pattern of a cruise missile differs significantly from that of an airplane. A cruise missile flies around the terrain. This ensures the missile's high stealth and the difficulty of destroying it with air defense systems.

At the same time, the civilian airplane had a clear flight path, the so-called air corridor. In addition, according to experts, the speed of the aircraft at the time of the attack was approximately 220 kilometers per hour. That is, the SAM operator was clearly aware of which side the system was targeting and where the missile would be fired.

“The technical specifications of the Ukrainian airplane and cruise missile are worth considering. The Boeing 737 has a length of 39.5 meters and a wingspan of 34.3 meters. On the other hand, the cruise missile measures 6.25 meters in length and has a diameter of 0.53 meters. According to experts, it is impossible to confuse the plane with a Tomahawk.”

The third factor that refuted the version of the accidental downing of the plane was related to the technical characteristics of the Russian Tor-M1 anti-aircraft missile system. Let me remind you that this is a short-range weapon with a maximum kill range of 12 kilometers, so its operator was well aware of the target he was engaging, tracking, and targeting.

Furthermore, the Tor-M1 air defense system is equipped with 2 radar stations: a surveillance locator and a targeting radar. The surveillance locator swiftly provides a comprehensive overview of the airspace within a mere 3 seconds, evaluating the level of threat posed by an object, its speed, and altitude. This information is then displayed on the operator's monitor, enabling a clear understanding of the target at hand.

The Tor has a radar system with a very high resolution. The operator could not confuse a Boeing 737 with a UAV. In addition, according to Russian military experts, the Tor-M1 has conducted dozens of successful military firings in Syria, specifically against UAVs. It is worth noting that they were 100% successful.

Let me remind you that the Ukrainian Boeing was in the air for several minutes, so the Iranian side's claims that the operator had 10 seconds to make a decision were not true.

I would also note that the IRGC military's version that the Tor-M1 detected an American drone, but then a civilian plane got in the way and the missiles switched to another, larger target, was not true. I would like to note that the Tor-M1 can work simultaneously on two targets - two missiles for each.

That is, even if we theoretically assume that there was a drone and a UIA plane in the area at the same time, the SAM would have hit both objects.

Notably, immediately after the tragedy, the Ukrainian media was flooded with information, including that of Ihor Tyshkevych, an expert at the Institute for the Future, that the cause of the crash could have been a collision with an American MQ-1 Predator drone.

According to the expert of the Institute for the Future, "the investigation into the tragedy involved thorough examination of all possibilities, including the possibility of the aircraft being shot down by Iranian forces or a collision with an American drone, which might have been present in Iranian airspace (especially after missile strikes on US bases in Iraq)."

The version mentioned, which appears to align with Russian narratives, is false in my view. Such statements are often employed as a means to divert attention from the primary version of events and can be characterized as "distractions to unworthy objects."

According to experts, the Predator RQ-1 reconnaissance aircraft is capable of operating at a range of nearly 750 kilometers. However, the Predator MQ-1 strike aircraft, being heavier, has a slightly shorter operational range, approximately two-thirds of the RQ-1's range. Tehran Airport is situated in the heart of the country.

The nearest point to the Iraq border, from where the Americans could potentially deploy a UAV, is over 520 kilometers away. Similarly, the Persian Gulf is even more distant, with a distance of over 730 kilometers. Given these distances, it is beyond the operational limit of Predator MQ-1 drones, and the Americans would have used other weapons to perform such tasks.

“That is, the existence of the drone, its appearance on radar, and any potential collision with the airplane or its downing have been reasonably excluded.”

In addition, I would like to draw attention to another important detail that refutes the version of an unintentional downing of the plane. A civilian aircraft is equipped with a transponder that operates on international frequencies and transmits information about the speed, altitude and type of aircraft. The military has the codes for this transponder, and the Tor-M1 air defense system is equipped with a friend-or-foe system.

If the detected air target does not provide a friend-or-foe identification and is classified as hostile based on its flight characteristics, only then is a decision made by the squadron commander to destroy it. In this version, the Iranians made one important mistake. Had they stated that the surface-to-air missile (SAM) was fired in automatic mode, it could have potentially lent credibility to the possibility of external interference.

Also, prior to the tragedy in the skies over Tehran, there was widespread media coverage regarding a reported cyber attack on Iran's air defense systems. This led to discussions about a potential "cover-up" operation, in which the downing of the Ukrainian plane would be attributed to external interference with the guidance and communication systems. 

“It is worth noting that Russia immediately tried to use this tragedy to justify the downing of Boeing flight MH17 over Donbas in July 2014.”

On January 9, 2020 - three days before Tehran officially recognized that the downing of the Boeing was due to human error - former Sukhoi design bureau designer and aviation expert Vadim Lukashevich said in an interview with Pravda.ru that the so-called spontaneous launch was to blame for the tragedy with the Ukrainian plane. That is, Russia was already practicing the scenario of "wanting to shoot down one target but hitting another."

Thus, the Russians tried to create a so-called legal precedent at the time of the MH17 crash over Donbas. Recognizing the fact of the downing due to the "human factor," in their opinion, was supposed to cancel global responsibility, states apologize, and that's it. In this case, it was extremely important for the Russians to set a precedent that they were not the only ones shooting down a passenger airliner, but other countries, including Iran, were also doing it.

Let me remind you that on March 17, 2021, Iran presented the final report on the investigation of the UIA plane crash. The document stated that the plane was destroyed due to an error by an air defense operator who identified it as an "enemy target.” At the time, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called this statement by the Iranian side "a cynical attempt to hide the true reasons for the downing of the plane."

For his part, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that "all those responsible for this disaster will definitely be brought to justice. In today's world, there is no chance that such a crime will remain without a proper response. There is no statute of limitations for such crimes either. And we are obviously also moving towards effective punishment of the perpetrators and obtaining proper compensation for the families of the victims. All this will definitely be done. It is the only way to do justice."

Exclusively for Espreso TV.

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyrov, columnist for Espreso TV.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.