Ukraine peace is out of reach: understanding the logic behind Trump’s next moves

1. So, what does Trump think?

1. Both sides are to blame. Each side is guilty in its own way. Regarding Ukraine, Witkoff’s comment about territories that Ukraine "does not want to share" is, on the one hand, weak — no country willingly agrees to give up its territory. On the other hand, the key point is that, despite all the rhetoric, no one has forced Ukraine to sign such an agreement. The United States still retains options.

2. Russia has not received any concessions — and will not, since no ceasefire agreement was signed. Sanctions remain in place, and I wouldn't rule out the possibility that they could even be strengthened. Meanwhile, the Persian Gulf countries have begun maneuvering to lower oil prices and expand their market share. This is a direct consequence of the trade wars initiated during Trump’s presidency.

3. I believe the deal concerning Ukraine's natural resources is tied to the continuation of U.S. military-technical assistance — something that is critically important at this moment. What needs to be emphasized is that the most misguided narrative circulating now is the claim that Trump "failed" the negotiations. It is far more beneficial to frame the situation as Putin sabotaging the talks. Unfortunately, in external communications, anti-Americanism — or more specifically, anti-Trumpism — often outweighs common sense.

4. At this stage, it is almost certain that negotiations between the U.S., the EU, and Ukraine have become the most critical for Ukraine’s future. As I wrote earlier: “Trump is now playing an extremely complex game with the EU. The core issues are the elimination of tariffs and a $300 billion arms order from the U.S. Essentially, this is a response to nearly identical offers from China. Failure in these negotiations would hand Beijing a victory in the geopolitical struggle for Europe — and, unfortunately for us, that is the world’s main war. A victory, on the other hand, would pave the way for a free trade zone encompassing the U.S., EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the UK — in short, all the world’s wealthiest nations. These negotiations will take months. We are only at the very beginning of this process. But I repeat — this is the main geopolitical game unfolding in the world.”

5. At the same time, the U.S. is preparing for negotiations with China. The contours of these talks are still unclear. However, it is highly likely that they will serve as the prelude to the next serious round of discussions regarding the war against Ukraine — a round that will probably take place at the end of 2025 or the beginning of 2026.

Right now, Ukraine must prepare for a very difficult summer of war. Putin is placing his hopes on the coming months, much like Hitler once did with the Wunderwaffe. Despite Russia’s deepening economic problems — and the risk of a full-blown crisis if oil prices remain at their current level for the next 4–6 months — Putin is prepared to stake a lot on this summer’s offensive.

Ukraine’s priority should be to move away from election-driven actions and rhetoric. Unfortunately, that remains more of a fantasy than a realistic expectation.

Finally, Trump has left himself a 5–7 day window to try to break Putin’s position. Although the probability of success is low, a narrow window of opportunity still exists

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.