Ukraine may be facing SAMP/T missile shortage

According to French newspaper Le Monde, while in 2024 Ukraine's air defense forces were intercepting over 90 percent of incoming drones, that success rate has now dropped to as low as 30 percent in some areas. The decline is attributed to increasingly complex Russian attacks that combine drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles — as well as rapid improvements to Iranian-designed Shahed drones.

A deputy commander of the “Yakut” air defense unit, responsible for the Odesa region and made up of 23 mobile teams, noted that since January, Shahed drones have begun flying at altitudes of 2,000–3,000 meters, compared to just 200 meters previously — making it impossible to shoot them down with small arms.

“When they dive at over 500 km/h, it’s extremely difficult to hit them,” he explained.

Le Monde reports that these drones, initially supplied by Tehran, are now being mass-produced near the Russian city of Kazan. The newer variants carry triple the payload — up to 90 kg — with various types of warheads: fragmentation, submunitions, incendiary, or thermobaric.

“Russia is also innovating, and they have more resources,” said Artem, a 34-year-old commander of a 30-soldier air defense battery stationed in southern Ukraine. “They’ve just launched five samples of a new type of missile in our area, which they call ‘Banderol’.”

According to Artem, Russian forces are programming their drones and cruise missiles to follow increasingly complex trajectories — dispersing mid-air before regrouping — and are deploying both physical and electronic decoys. “The goal is to drain our ammunition and overwhelm our capacity,” he said.

Artem’s unit, equipped with a NASAMS battery using U.S.-supplied missiles and legacy Soviet-made S-300 systems, also deploys decoys on the ground to mislead Russian targeting.

Still, he warned: “We need far more long-range systems like Patriot, IRIS-T, and SAMP/T. Right now, we have nothing. Today, we cannot protect southern Ukraine from missile attacks.”

A source cited by Le Monde said Ukraine no longer has any missiles for its two SAMP/T batteries. For the short-range French Crotale system, Ukraine reportedly hasn’t received a single missile in a year and a half.

• Ukraine's SAMP/T systems face a missile shortage, raising doubts about their ability to serve as a reliable alternative to the American Patriot air defense system.