SAMP/T missile shortage raises concerns about Ukraine's air defense effectiveness

Ukraine has at least two SAMP/T air defense systems in service, often referred to as the European equivalent of the Patriot. However, the situation regarding the availability of missiles for these systems is more complicated than it seems, Defense Express reports.

The SAMP/T system is reportedly facing a shortage of missiles, raising concerns about its overall effectiveness. This issue was mentioned in a report by The Wall Street Journal, which criticized Donald Trump's decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine and examined how it could negatively impact ongoing combat operations. The report dedicates two paragraphs to the SAMP/T, highlighting that this European system is not a viable alternative to the American Patriot, citing "people familiar with the matter" as sources.

From a Defense Express perspective, the shortage of missiles for SAMP/T appears to be a realistic concern. This system is not widely deployed—besides Ukraine, it is used primarily by France and Italy, both of which are part of the Eurosam consortium responsible for its development and production. Before the transfer of two SAMP/T systems to Ukraine, the most optimistic estimates put the total number at 10 in France and 6 in Italy. Singapore also ordered two systems in 2013, achieving full operational readiness only by late 2023.

It is worth noting that SAMP/T uses Aster missiles, which are widely deployed in naval air defense systems. These missiles are required by the navies of nine countries and are currently in service on at least 47 warships worldwide.

However, there are two versions of the Aster missile. The shorter Aster 15 is 4.2 meters long, weighs 310 kg, and has a range of up to 30 km, launched from Sylver A43 cells. The longer Aster 30, used by SAMP/T, is 4.9 meters long, weighs 450 kg, and has a range of over 100 km, launched from Sylver A50 cells.

Aster missile characteristics, Photo: Defense Express

The Aster 30 missile is used on only 30 warships equipped with Sylver A50 cells, often in conjunction with Aster 15:

• France: 4 FREMM Aquitaine-class frigates (out of 8), 2 Forbin-class frigates
• Italy: 2 Andrea Doria-class destroyers, 8 FREMM Carlo Bergamini-class frigates, 1 Paolo Thaon di Revel-class patrol vessel
• United Kingdom: 6 Daring-class (Type 45) destroyers
• Algeria: 1 Kalaat Beni Abbes-class amphibious assault ship
• Egypt: 2 Al-Galala-class FREMM frigates
• Qatar: 4 Al Zubarah-class corvettes

This means that the stockpile of Aster 30 missiles might not be as large as desired. Furthermore, in 2023, France reduced its planned SAMP/T order to 10 systems and just 200 missiles in the first phase. Similarly, Singapore ordered 200 missiles when it purchased its two SAMP/T units in 2013, reaching full readiness only by late 2023.

In 2023, France announced efforts to shorten production cycles, as manufacturing a single Aster missile previously took 40 months. The goal was to reduce this to 18 months by 2026 while increasing production capacity by 50%.

At that time, plans were also unveiled to boost the overall production of Aster missiles, aiming to manufacture 700 units over several years at a cost of 2 billion euros. This provides insight into the estimated annual production rate, which includes both Aster 15 and Aster 30 variants.

Thus, it is difficult to argue that Aster 30 missiles for SAMP/T are widely available. Moreover, different versions of Aster 30 exist, which may be linked to claims made by the American publication regarding SAMP/T’s challenges in intercepting ballistic missiles.