Trump likely to shift stance on Putin, as past presidents did — Polish historian Nowak

Polish historian Andrzej Nowak, a professor at Jagiellonian University and member of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Institute of National Remembrance, shared his opinion on Espreso TV.

"I am openly against any talk about alternatives to NATO. NATO must be preserved and expanded — specifically by Ukraine joining the alliance within a certain timeframe, preferably as soon as possible. I have no doubt, although I may be wrong, that President Trump will change his attitude toward Vladimir Putin, just as his predecessors did. Let me remind you: George W. Bush initially wanted to look deeply into Vladimir Putin’s eyes and find a person there. John McCain said that all you could see was a KGB officer. Over time, during his second term, George W. Bush became convinced of McCain’s view. I believe Barack Obama started with the goal of resetting relations with Putin, but that gradually changed.

And I think President Trump’s large ego — here, we probably all agree this is a defining trait of his; everyone has an ego, some bigger than others, and his is very big — means he will not tolerate being constantly deceived or manipulated by someone like Putin," he said.

Andrzej Nowak noted that he is currently researching Vladimir Putin. He concluded that Putin cannot impress a politician who treats him as an equal partner, as Putin views everyone as an adversary.

“I am currently studying not only Vladimir Putin’s views but also his political and psychological profile. Putin is simply unable to impress any politician who treats him as a partner. Everyone is treated the way the KGB taught him — to see others as adversaries to be deceived and, if possible, eliminated.

President Trump cannot be temporarily eliminated, but he can be deceived — and Trump will not tolerate that. I believe he is already beginning to understand that Vladimir Putin will not be a reliable partner, and I am hopeful about that.

On the other hand, there is no alternative to NATO. For example, a European security system relying on Britain, France, and Germany alone does not compare to American military power. It is simply insufficient against Russia. As long as American troops remain here — in Poland, near the border with Ukraine — and they have bases in Romania, Putin’s aggression is slowed, although he is constantly testing how far he can advance,” he said.

The Polish historian believes that if Russia were to attack a NATO member, American society would not allow Donald Trump to remain passive.

“I doubt that if there were an attack on a NATO country, such as Lithuania, Latvia, or Poland, not only would President Trump have to respond, but there is also what is known as the Deep State — the deeper layers of American governance. It will not allow the U.S. to lose its international standing by neglecting its core NATO obligations. The destruction of NATO would also mean the loss of America’s global influence, effectively ending its role as a global player. The Deep State will not permit this to happen. Therefore, I am not pessimistic about NATO’s future. Rather, I am cautious about those who seek to create alternative security structures,” said Andrzej Nowak.