Trump less inclined to follow Putin's lead every day — journalist Portnikov

In an interview with Espreso, Portnikov explained, "It has become absolutely clear over time that all of Donald Trump's hopes that he could force Putin to agree to the idea of a 30-day ceasefire did not work. What is a 30-day ceasefire? It’s a path to prolonging it further. And negotiations about ceasefire would continue, about peace, about the lasting peace they talk about, including in Russia. I must say, even today we face a situation where the Russian side says it is ready to negotiate with Ukraine but without a ceasefire. Russia constantly says that during a ceasefire, the Ukrainian army will rearm, and currently, it cannot sustain the war. Therefore, the West just wants this ceasefire to rearm the Ukrainian army."

Portnikov believes that there are two concepts in play right now: "Trump's concept is 'a ceasefire and peace talks,' and Putin's concept is 'peace talks without a ceasefire.' I don’t know how these two concepts can be reconciled. And Trump doesn’t know either. I think Trump was right when he came up with that idea because he believed that once military actions stop, we would find ourselves in a completely different political reality."

In his view, starting a war is easy, but ending it is very difficult — and once it ends, starting it again becomes even harder because the logistics and conditions change.

"Russia is the aggressor, meaning it is advancing on Ukrainian positions. With each month of a ceasefire, these positions become stronger, not for an offensive, but for defense against the Russian army. So, when the Russian army decides in 90 days, or 30, or whatever amount of days, that it has to continue its offensive, it will be harder for them. Everyone is well aware of this. The Russians are aware of it too," added Portnikov.

He believes that Trump will soon have to decide what to do next. "Either he will really put pressure on Russia, as the Europeans suggest, and today’s [May 10 - ed.] meeting with European leaders and Zelenskyy showed once again this readiness. Or he will continue to act as he has up until now, following Putin’s scenario, but we see that with each passing day, Trump is less and less willing to act according to Putin’s scenario. Because he understands that continuing negotiations in the face of the ongoing killing of peaceful Ukrainians harms his own reputation. There is nothing good for Trump here," he noted.

Portnikov thinks that in the near future, Trump will do everything possible to distance himself from at least intensive negotiations with Russia if it doesn't make any concessions.

"No one in the Kremlin is planning new meetings between Steve Witkoff and Putin. And this raises the question, under what conditions should Witkoff come to Russia and present Putin with the terms? These are not terms for a ceasefire. These are terms for negotiations. A ceasefire should be agreed upon without conditions. We spoke about 22 terms. First, the fire stops, and then Witkoff goes to Moscow. That could be the idea. He proposes terms to Putin, and Putin proposes his. They discuss it. Then Trump gets involved. Well, this is Trump’s process. And we see that there’s Putin’s process. Let Witkoff come. We will continue shooting at Ukraine with 'Oreshnik,' or whatever we have. That’s all. I don’t think Trump knows how to get out of this situation. I think he had no 'plan B,' and he was sincerely confident that he could negotiate with Putin and Zelenskyy about a ceasefire. But clearly, that’s not the case in the current political situation after he came to power. Moreover, these talks between Putin and Trump only led to more attacks on Ukrainian territory, to more Ukrainian casualties," the journalist concluded.

He urged not to be misled by the statement that Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine without preconditions, which is now being repeated by Chinese sources.

"Negotiations without preconditions mean they are ready to talk. But they’ve always been ready to talk. What’s new here? But they are not ready to stop hostilities. Putin did not tell Xi Jinping that he is ready to stop the hostilities. That’s the main content of the meeting that took place in Moscow between the President of the People’s Republic of China and the President of the Russian Federation," Portnikov concluded.