Trump eyes one more negotiation round, with two opposing outcomes on the table – political analyst

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.

"This is the second round of talks on restoring diplomatic relations between Russia and the United States. Officially, that’s the main topic. Unofficially, it's likely that there will be more consultations on possible economic agreements between Russia and the U.S. But I don’t think there’ll be any real progress or serious decisions. On top of that, we should note that a statement came from Donald Trump’s camp saying the Americans are currently not interested in a prisoner exchange with Russia. This is the usual Putin play — he pretends to be open to negotiations and is happy to hand over people he arrested specifically for this kind of bargaining. It seems Trump understands this trick and said, 'I’m not interested in prisoner swaps, because that’s just for show, not real progress in talks,'" he said.

Denysenko pointed out that no American business is returning to Russia. Some brands are coming back, but those were already operating through third countries. Real investment, production, or capital flow is simply not happening.

"So from that angle, a business comeback is still a long way off. To get there, several serious steps are needed. When it comes to improving relations, that usually starts with increasing the number of consulates, adding more diplomats — a symbolic gesture toward a reset. And let’s remember that if Russian agents come back to the U.S. disguised as diplomats, American agents will return to Russia in the same way. But even this is not there yet. The first round of negotiations, about two weeks ago, didn’t bring any meaningful results. Talks went on for nine hours — no outcome. Right now, Putin’s not in the mood for peace negotiations. And any thaw in relations has to begin with peace talks around Ukraine," he said.

The political analyst added that no matter how much Putin tries to “sell air” — by claiming Russia can solve the Iran nuclear issue, or the North Korean missile threat, or mediate between the U.S. and China in some future talks — right now, it’s all empty talk. And he thinks Washington understands this.

"I think Trump has decided there should be at least one more round of talks. Psychologically, I think he’s giving himself about a month before making a decision. A month is approximately, maybe four, five, six weeks. After that, two completely opposite options are on the table. The first is imposing harsh sanctions — the kind Lindsey Graham has talked about — where if any country buys Russian oil illegally, they’d face a 500% tariff. I don’t think that’s a likely scenario, but it’s out there. The second option is slowing everything down and shifting focus to a third party. Of course, there’s still a chance — however small — that a 30-day ceasefire or something like that could be reached. But from where I stand, that chance is very slim right now," Denysenko added.

• On March 25, another round of talks took place in Riyadh between Ukrainian and American delegations. Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow agreed on steps to ensure safe shipping in the Black Sea.
• On March 26, it was reported that Russia’s condition for agreeing to a ceasefire in the Black Sea includes lifting European sanctions.
• On April 10, the U.S. and Russia will hold another round of talks in Istanbul. The focus will be on normalizing embassy operations.