Trump authorizes strikes on Iran. Israel welcomes move, Iran not so much

Putin is pleased, too. For Ukraine, this brings little good — except a fleeting sense of revenge for the Shaheds. But that’s just emotion. Reason tells a different story.

The Russians will stomp their feet, post angry statements, and cry about violated sovereignty — but it’s mostly for show.

In reality, Trump’s actions last night gave them several clear advantages.

• The price of oil may rise again. Even before the bombing, crude was 15 percent more expensive than we’d seen in recent months. That greatly helps Russia’s troubled budget and economy, buying Putin more time to wage war. Now, with escalation risk, extra upward pressure is likely. Traffic in the Persian Gulf is already restricted. Traders fear Iran’s response.
• The United States is being drawn into a new war. That will weaken Washington and NATO overall, and the deeper America gets, the better for Putin.
• More chaos in a key region. Russia always sows chaos — constantly. It is their core strategy.
• Less attention to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Yes, Trump has shown he can act. But he did so when Israel had already done the heavy lifting, risks were minimal, and he could pin a medal on himself. This does not mean Trump is ready for decisive moves against Russia. Moscow already has many nuclear bombs, whereas Iran has none. So Putin need not fear Trump dropping one on his bunker next time.

And yes, Iran is neither Russia’s friend nor ally. They have used each other. Russia bought (earlier) Shaheds from Iran for cash — drones that killed Ukrainians. We feel no sympathy for Iran. But escalation in the Middle East is not in Ukraine's interest, nor does it mean Russia suffers from Iran’s weakening.

Much depends on how Iran responds and what exactly it does. That affects the degree of damage but, of course, does not change the essence.

If you expect a sudden revolution in Tehran that brings a liberal democrat to power, I hate to disappoint you… but…

Source

About the author: Serhiy Fursa, investment expert and blogger.

The editorial team does not always share the views expressed by blog authors.