“Truce” in Iran and its early effects on Ukraine war

1. In this whole story, there is an almost perfect stalemate: Israel wants to change the regime in Iran, but cannot; the United States could theoretically remove the ayatollahs' regime, but does not want to. Iran is unwilling and unable to fight, but wants to preserve the regime; China is just waiting, but is categorically against a major war; Russia simultaneously wants a war that it is not ready to provide weapons for, all while Putin's main goal is not to fall out with Trump.

2. Whether this peace will be relatively long-lasting depends primarily on Israel. All other players do not want escalation (Russia is not a player here). More precisely, the Iranian Foreign Minister's visit to Moscow the day before yesterday will be sold to Trump as mediation. But everyone understands perfectly well that Russia is not a player here.

3. As for the Ukraine war, at first glance, it seems to have returned to the “minus two weeks” situation. But there are two important new factors here: the split in Europe over Israel-Iran (less important) and Trump's new ratings, which will probably go up after the truce. This is a factor that will hamper the ability to put pressure on Trump to impose sanctions on Russia.

Read also: Putin leaves Iran to its own devices

4. A quick end to the war dramatically reduces the threat that the U.S. will not sell Ukraine weapons.

5. Trump's refusal to attend the NATO summit is in many ways the same “trick” as his urgent departure from the G-7. Trump doesn't want to talk about Ukraine and Russia right now, and he's hanging Europe out to dry on the main issue, which is security.

6. I have said and continue to believe that the most important negotiations for Ukraine now are those in the U.S.-EU-Ukraine triangle, where there are three issues: tariffs (the issue has been suspended for several months), security (the issue is not even being considered yet), and the issue of Ukraine peace (the issue is postponed until after Putin's summer offensive).

7. Trump is eager to simultaneously receive preferences from the “Dmitriev proposals” and force the EU to agree to the transfer of high-tech production to the United States. And this will be the main topic of backroom discussions in the summer and, possibly, real negotiations in the fall. The outcome of these negotiations will determine the issue of peace talks in Ukraine.

I am deliberately leaving out the U.S.-China talks here because it seems that Trump has no trump cards to play here. It is more important for him to win over Europe.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.