Why doesn't Scholz supply the German Leopards to Ukraine?
The story with the German tanks and with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is reminiscent of the constant box of surprises that occasionally arise in relations with this country. Ukraine's Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, before his visit to Germany, conducted a number of interviews with foreign publications and said that Ukraine needs German or American tanks. And after the meeting with Scholz, it was said that they really talked about the supply of German weapons and reached a certain structure.
But, as we can see, this construct dissipated over time: there was a publication in the Die Welt publication, in which it was stated that Scholz did not support the proposal of the Ukrainian side to transfer or, in the future, ensure the supply of tanks. According to Shmyhal, certain mechanisms were agreed upon, and such a mechanism was to be a direct contract with the manufacturer of Leopard tanks, the German company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann. It is also known that there was a possibility of concluding a contract for 100 new Leopard A7 tanks, which could be manufactured for Ukraine. But this contract was not concluded and Scholz did not support such a decision.
Another publication appeared in a German newspaper today, where Scholz explained why he did not support such a decision and that he is acting in the same way as the G7 countries. That is, there is an agreement not to supply certain types of weapons, and Scholz also referred to Biden's article in The New York Times, where the US president spoke about not supplying certain types of weapons to Ukraine. During this time, the situation has changed, but Germany's position regarding tanks has not changed. Accordingly, there is a taboo on the supply of certain types of weapons to Ukraine, in particular Leopard in various versions.
It is interesting that there was a report of Germany to the UN, which talked about Germany's stockpiles of weapons, and it turns out that they have a lot of old stockpiles of weapons. In particular, Leopard 1 tanks - 182 units, Leopard 2 - 642, BMP - 730, Puma BMP - 330, that is, there is a stock of weapons that Germany could transfer without waiting for the production of new models. This approach of Germany will remain rather complicated and unpleasant for us. Scholz says that there is a certain division in the supply of weapons for Ukraine, and Germany is responsible for artillery and air defense. But why not transfer the tanks so that Ukraine conducts offensive actions more effectively? After all, it is extremely difficult to liberate territories without heavy armored vehicles.
In the south, the marines use Kirpi vehicles to attack the enemy, but instead of armored vehicles, there should be tanks. The meeting in Ramstein may be an impetus to break the tank taboo.
Putin is going to ask Kim Jong-un for help
The information that Putin is going to seek help from the leader of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, demonstrates that the Russian defense-industrial complex has exhausted all its possibilities. These intimidations of the Russian Federation, that it can wage a war of attrition, do not correspond to reality. In half a year, Russia exhausted half of its ammunition reserves, it fires up to 60,000 per day, and in the next six months, Russia will exhaust all its reserves. And the Russian defense industry can produce a maximum of 1.5 million new ammunition per year and has no opportunity to expand this potential, because there is a lack of enterprises and trained personnel.
Now Russia's leadership with an outstretched hand first ran to Iran, where they took drones, and now there is an effort to get ammunition from North Korea. This is reported by American sources and US intelligence. There is a risk that Russia may purchase some of these munitions from North Korea, but they may have problems with logistics and the quality of the munitions. The Russian Federation is also running out of gun resources. At least 85% of the 1,500 guns deployed to the Ukrainian fronts require barrel replacement, which means that the Russians will have problems with their artillery systems after a certain period. The conclusions are that it is necessary to actively use our methods of destroying Russian warehouses, artillery, to pressure partners to obtain ATACMS, and to take active actions to minimize the enemy's ability to use artillery.
The situation at the fronts
It is worth mentioning the interview of the ABC News agency president, where he claimed that the issue of counteroffensive actions is not only Kherson, but several other directions. Indeed, we are talking about the south, and about Kharkiv, as well as about the Luhansk direction.
South of Ukraine
The situation in the south is developing dynamically, positional battles continue, and Ukraine's Armed Forces use long-range artillery. Bridges over the Dnipro and Inhulets no longer work, and pontoon crossings are being destroyed. If we talk about separate directions, then, in addition to Vysokopillya, we can talk about Potomkyne, Olhyne, and Novovoznesensk, most of which are already under Ukraine's control, and this is a significant area that has been pushed back from the enemy.
The central part of this Ukrainian offensive is Sukhyi Stavok, from where the offensive on Kostroma develops and then the route to Beryslav is the idea of cutting the Russian group in half.
There is a positive dynamic on the right flank — Zelenyi Hai and Kiselivka. And from Kiselivka to Chornobaivka and Kherson - 18 km, this direction is important.
Kharkiv region
There were reports from various sources, but we are waiting for the president's address. After all, the mention of Balaklia and the Izyum direction indicates that there is a positive dynamic associated with the recapture of territories that the enemy held under their control. Every meter recaptured from the enemy is an extraordinary effort of Ukraine's Armed Forces, which ensures qualitative changes on the front line.