Sky Shield for Ukraine: What we know about Europe's new initiative

Contents

1. What is the Sky Shield initiative for Ukraine?
2. The European model of the Shield
3. Why the initiative is back in discussion

On March 6, The Guardian reported that European military experts, including ministers and generals from key European nations, have resumed discussions on the Sky Shield initiative. Espreso explains how the system would function, what’s being debated, and where it all began.

What is the Sky Shield initiative for Ukraine?

According to initial plans, 120 European fighter jets would patrol the skies over Kyiv and western Ukraine, intercepting Russian cruise missiles and drones. The mission would likely involve F-16s or equivalent aircraft such as F-35s, Mirage jets, Eurofighter Typhoons, and JAS 39 Gripens, all operating from European air bases. The plan also includes long-range radar detection planes, tanker aircraft, and specialized reconnaissance and electronic warfare jets.

The "Sky Shield" coverage would include three nuclear power plants, as well as Odesa, Lviv, and Kyiv. The current proposal does not extend to the front lines or eastern Ukraine.

Experts argue that this initiative could be more effective than deploying 10,000 European ground troops. It would also reinforce Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s "truce in the sky" proposal, which seeks to ban missile strikes, long-range drone attacks, and bombings of energy and civilian infrastructure.

The plan was developed by former British Air Force strategists in collaboration with the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is backed by figures such as former U.S. Air Force General and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Philip Breedlove, former British Army General and NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Sir Richard Shirreff, and former Polish President Aleksander Kwaśniewski.

Supporters of the initiative argue that risks to European military personnel would be minimal, as Russian fighter jets rarely cross the front lines. This means a safe distance of approximately 200 km could be maintained.

The European model of the Shield

The initiative covered in The Guardian isn’t the first one. The "European Sky Shield" was first proposed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a visit to Prague in August 2022. He highlighted the gaps in Europe's air defense and the lack of capability to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. By October of that year, Germany and 14 other EU members had signed an agreement to implement the initiative. Over time, the number of participating countries grew to 22, including:

• Austria
• Belgium
• Bulgaria
• Great Britain
• Hungary
• Germany
• Greece
• Denmark
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Netherlands
• Norway
• Poland
• Romania
• Slovakia
• Slovenia
• Turkey
• Finland
• Czech Republic
• Switzerland
• Sweden
• Estonia

At the time, the system was designed as a fully coordinated, multi-layered air defense network — essentially an "umbrella" over the signatory nations. The 2022 version of the "Shield" included short-range (up to 15 km), medium-range (up to 50 km), and long-range (over 150 km) systems.

But there was one major distinction from Israel’s "Iron Dome." The agreement aimed to jointly purchase specific air defense systems to maximize coverage at minimal cost.

The original plan involved three systems: Germany’s IRIS-T (short and medium range), the U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot (medium and long range), and Israel’s Arrow-3 (long and ultra-long range).

This approach drew criticism. As The Financial Times reported, French President Emmanuel Macron argued that the plan relied too heavily on non-European systems and failed to address the need for long-range missile capabilities to deter Russia. Meanwhile, Germany’s Bundestag countered that buying existing systems was the fastest way to close the continent’s defense gaps.

As a result, some countries withdrew, and the initiative now has 19 members.

The latest update on the "European Sky Shield" came from Israel’s Ministry of Defense, which announced preparations to deploy Arrow-3 systems in Germany. The rollout is scheduled for completion by 2025.

Why the initiative is back in discussion

The "Sky Shield" initiative was first proposed in February 2022, but no clear consensus was reached at the time. Talks about deploying the system over Ukraine have gained momentum following the announcement of a pause in U.S. military aid. The U.S. has been Ukraine’s key supplier of Patriot air defense systems and missiles. Without that support, and with Russia continuing its long-range missile strikes, Ukraine could soon face a critical shortage of air defense capabilities.

The initiative has backing from former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis.

"The implementation of Sky Shield would be an important component of Europe’s stepping up, guaranteeing Ukraine’s security effectively and efficiently," he told The Guardian.

Former head of Ukraine’s State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, Mustafa Nayem, highlighted not just its defensive role but also its economic impact.

"Safe skies mean Ukrainian ports can operate without disruption — crucial for grain exports and economic recovery. Protecting infrastructure will also boost investor confidence and create conditions for refugees to return," he said.

Additionally, shielding central and western Ukraine would free up air defense forces to focus on the front lines and areas closer to the battlefield.

Not everyone is on board, though. The Guardian notes that some European officials worry that any confrontation between Russian and European pilots could lead to escalation.

• After the cessation of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, the stockpile of missiles for American Patriot systems could be depleted within the next few weeks.