Triple blow to Russia's oil exports
We were told that Russian oil would fall below cost price, weren't we? Now Russian oil has dropped to $40 per barrel — the lowest since the start of the full-scale war. The war budget was based on $69.7
Exporters are receiving slightly more than $40 per barrel when shipping from Baltic and Black Sea ports, as well as from the eastern port of Kozmino.
Over the past three months, the value of Russian oil has decreased by 28%.
Additional damage to revenues was inflicted by U.S. sanctions imposed in October against key state oil companies, which sharply narrowed the circle of buyers and forced them to sell raw materials at increasingly larger discounts.
Importantly, the price drop is occurring amid a general weakening of the oil market: the benchmark Brent crude fell below $60 per barrel for the first time since May due to signs of supply exceeding demand.
For Russia, this means a triple blow:
due to market conditions;
due to sanctions pressure;
and due to the most powerful sanctions imposed by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.
"However, Moscow is trying to compensate for the price collapse by increasing physical export volumes. Since August, maritime shipments have grown by approximately the same 28%, but finding buyers is becoming increasingly difficult."
Yet now this proven path is increasingly disappointing.
Part of the tanker fleet with Russian oil is idle at sea without the possibility of unloading, which further pressures prices and undermines export revenues. The situation is complicated by changes in logistics: due to reduced purchases from India, Russian tankers are forced to take longer routes to China. This slows down fleet turnover and leads to the accumulation of excess volumes at sea — their level has already reached a maximum for the past two and a half years.
And here drones are also peering at the light, and setting it ablaze...
The main thing is not to stop. And at some point, peace talks will actually be substantive - "and not what's happening now," as the Artist likes to say.
About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political scientist, political strategist, lecturer.
The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.
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