India scrambles to prove Russian oil pivot as Trump trade deal hangs in balance

The author of the Resurgam Telegram channel discussed the issue.

In a sign of mounting pressure, India's government has taken the unprecedented step of requiring oil refiners to submit weekly reports on Russian crude imports—a move that underscores how sensitive the issue has become for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration as it pursues a trade agreement with Washington.

The enhanced reporting requirement, confirmed by five industry and government sources to Reuters, directs refiners to provide regular updates to the oil ministry's Planning and Analysis Cell. "We want timely and accurate data on Russian and American oil imports so that when the U.S. asks for information, we can provide verified figures instead of relying on secondary sources," one government official explained.

The timing is significant. President Trump has made clear his displeasure with India's purchases of discounted Russian oil, even as he maintains a cordial relationship with Modi. In recent remarks, Trump noted that Modi "really wanted to please me" with commitments to reduce Russian oil purchases, adding pointedly that "we can quickly raise tariffs on them, and that would be very difficult for them."

The heightened scrutiny comes amid conflicting reports about India's actual import levels. While some headlines trumpet India's retreat from Russian crude, others report record volumes—discrepancies that stem from the complex nature of the trade, including differences between spot purchases and long-term contracts, state versus private refineries, and sophisticated workarounds involving transshipments near Sri Lanka.

The controversy has even ensnared Mukesh Ambani, Asia's richest person and owner of Reliance Industries, which has been among the largest buyers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, purchasing an estimated $33 billion worth. When Bloomberg reported in late December that Reliance had resumed Russian oil imports after a brief pause, the company issued a rare public denial in early January, insisting it had not received Russian crude shipments in the previous three weeks and expected none in January.

The unusual public rebuttal suggests the political stakes have risen considerably. Reliance has historically shrugged off public criticism of its Russian purchases, but appears newly sensitive to perceptions that could complicate the Modi government's Washington negotiations.

Despite the murkiness around actual import volumes, one trend is clear: Russia's revenues from Indian oil sales are declining sharply due to a combination of lower global prices and record discounts, reaching multi-year lows according to Bloomberg data.

For the Trump administration, India's response to pressure on Russian oil purchases represents a test case for how effectively tariff threats can reshape the behavior of strategic partners. For New Delhi, demonstrating progress on the issue has become essential to securing the trade deal it desperately wants—creating what U.S. officials may view as valuable leverage in the bilateral relationship.