'First quarter will be key indicator': economist on impact of sanctions on Russia

Oleh Pendzin, a member of the Economic Discussion Club, expressed this opinion on Espreso TV.

"No one expected India and China to refuse Russian oil. But it is clear that these countries will withdraw Russian oil from those volumes of oil refining that will then go for export, so as not to fall under sanctions restrictions. Turkey will definitely refuse, withdraw from those volumes. We are expecting the 20th sanctions package, which will strengthen control over Russia's shadow tanker fleet. In reality, everything will depend on many factors in the global oil market. This includes the Venezuela question, and the extent to which Europeans can refuse the oil that comes through the shadow tanker fleet. There are many elements there," the economist commented.

According to him, looking at the processes currently taking place, the overall volume from Russian oil sales is decreasing.

"The question is - how quickly will this affect Russia's ability to continue waging war? Experts estimate that the end of the first quarter will be quite indicative - the extent to which Russia has managed to resolve issues with the main sanctions restrictions. By the way, Russia's main goal when entering the negotiation process will be the weakening of sanctions pressure, because it is precisely the sanctions that are putting pressure on the Russian economy today. It should be said that neither Iran nor China does anything for free. And when China supplies something to Russia, Russia pays for it. If it has something to pay with, then China will support it. But if Russia has no money, then, excuse me, China will supply nothing," Pendzin noted.

• The European Union plans to adopt the 20th package of sanctions against Russia by the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The new restrictions aim to intensify pressure on the Kremlin and deal a more significant blow to the Russian economy.