China sets “special” terms for cooperation with Russia

As former president of Ukraine Leonid Kravchuk used to say, “that’s true, but not entirely.” China always pursues its own interests, and its “support” for Russia primarily reflects Beijing’s own calculations.

First, China imposes very “special” terms of cooperation on Russia.

For example, Russia is forced to sell natural gas to China at significantly lower prices than to its few clients in Europe and Turkey.

"According to the forecast by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development submitted with the draft budget, in 2025 the export price of gas to China will be around $249 per thousand cubic meters, while to Western markets it will be nearly $402. This is 38% less than for Turkey and some European countries."

Over the next three years, the price gap is expected to remain at least 27%, confirming that reorienting toward the Chinese market is unprofitable. For the Kremlin, this means growing dependence on China and reduced profitability for Gazprom, as supplies to Europe before 2022 were the company’s main source of income.

Even accounting for increased supplies via the Power of Siberia pipeline and new agreements with Beijing, Russia earns significantly less from gas exports than before the war.

Second, sanctions are indeed working — in banking, among manufacturers, and even against the “shadow fleet.”

China is implementing a system to regulate “shadow fleet” tankers at one of its largest oil terminals, Bloomberg reports.

Starting November 1, new rules will take effect at the port of Qingdao, which accounts for one-sixth of China’s oil imports.

From now on, oil tankers will be checked for age, environmental insurance coverage, and registration changes with the International Maritime Organization.

Vessels receiving a low rating, specifically those older than 31 years or with invalid insurance certificates, will not be allowed into Qingdao port.

Journalists note that these measures are specifically targeting the “shadow fleet” that Russia and Iran use to transport oil around Western sanctions.

Thus, to deprive Russia of Chinese resources, cooperation with Russia must become increasingly unprofitable.

And there’s more to come.

Source

About the author. Rostyslav Pavlenko, Ukrainian politician, political analyst, political technologist, and lecturer. He served as a Member of Parliament of Ukraine in the IX convocation.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by blog or column authors.