Russians fall into the trap of Bakhmut

Hysteria is being whipped up in the Western press: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are depleting troops and ammunition near Bakhmut, the army has killed off its career officers and now only mobilized them, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not saving shells and vice versa, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a huge shortage of shells, the US is pressuring Ukraine to retreat from Bakhmut, and a counteroffensive will be impossible. All this is complete nonsense. Now, as much as possible, I will try to explain why the situation is even better than one might expect.

First, two interesting points:

1. Russians have started a new wave of mobilization. This is a really painful issue for the population. This is bad news for us. Nevertheless, there is an important aspect to it: the losses are really huge, and there is a reason to hurry up with the mobilization. Whereas we are entering April with a successful mobilization (albeit not without its sins), formed and even trained brigades, and supplied with equipment and ammunition. Russians, on the other hand, are entering with exhausted troops and the beginning of a new wave of mobilization, after which at least 2 more months of training are needed.

2. Russian military commanders have unanimously spoken sadly about our counteroffensive. They claim that we have already amassed very serious troops for this purpose, and have been conducting reconnaissance by fighting in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

And now about the strategic assessment of the situation. Russians have trapped themselves in Bakhmut. They have made it too valuable and now cannot afford to stop storming it. Although there are other important areas strategically: Kreminna and Vuhledar. In both of these areas, a breakthrough would seriously threaten Ukrainian defense. Near Kreminna, a breakthrough to Lyman and further to Sloviansk would jeopardize the entire defense of Siversk and Bakhmut, among other things. A breakthrough near Vuhledar would jeopardize the defense of Avdiivka, Mariinka and other points near Donetsk. Whereas a breakthrough and capture near Bakhmut does not pose any particular threat.

“Russians have trapped themselves in Bakhmut. They have made it too valuable and now cannot afford to stop storming it. Although there are other important areas strategically: Kreminna and Vuhledar. In both of these areas, a breakthrough would seriously threaten Ukrainian defense”

That is why Wagner mercenaries were sent to Bakhmut, as neither regular nor elite troops, while Kreminna and Vuhledar are being stormed by elite airborne troops and marines. However, Wagner failed in Bakhmut, so now 2 airborne regiments have been redeployed there, thus reducing pressure on the key areas of Kreminna and Vuhledar. As a result, the occupiers have shackled their initiative and lack the strength to achieve a breakthrough.

At the same time, Ukraine gathered reserves, equipment and ammunition in anticipation of good weather. Now the occupiers are panicking about the direction of the Ukrainian attack. There are 3 such directions. The first one is through Kreminna to Svatove or Starobilsk, which will put the occupiers in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk in a difficult situation and force them to show further “gestures of goodwill.” The second is from Vuhledar to Volnovakha and Mariupol, which will jeopardize their entire southern corridor and it is even difficult to assess the moral blow to the enemy if we return Mariupol. The third direction is Melitopol, with the prospect of entering Crimea.

In fact, the occupiers, stuck in Bakhmut, were unable to reduce the threat of Ukrainian strikes. If they had concentrated all their forces on Kreminna or Vuhledar, the number of directions for Ukrainian counterattack could have been seriously reduced, and, accordingly, it would have been easier for the occupiers to prepare their defense. Now they have to keep serious forces for defense in every possible direction of assault. And this further reduces their ability to attack.

Therefore, Ukraine has the forces, the weapons, the opportunities, even the weather. God is with us.

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About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist.

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