Energy genocide: Russia targets major cities' infrastructure to force Ukraine into concessions

Moscow is well aware that completely paralyzing the Ukrainian economy is impossible, since a significant portion of electricity is produced by nuclear power plants.

Up to 60% of Ukraine's electrical generation is provided by nuclear, atomic power plants. Russia understands perfectly well that there is currently no possibility of completely paralyzing the Ukrainian economy and minimizing electricity consumption by the civilian population.

Over four years, Ukrainian energy has shown that it is capable of withstanding colossal strikes from Russia. Therefore, the question arose: how to shut it down. The answer: strikes on substations that ensure the production cycle of nuclear power plants. At the same time, Russian forces are implementing this scenario precisely at the moment of maximum cold in Ukraine. First and foremost, the strike is directed not at the military-industrial complex, but at the civilian population. The task is to provoke social upheaval. 

"Such actions are an element of military-political pressure aimed at forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions."

Note that at moments when the negotiation process intensifies, during meetings in Davos and Abu Dhabi, the number of attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure sharply increases. Russia uses this tactic as an element of military-political pressure on Ukraine. 

Russian forces understand perfectly well that they cannot break through Ukrainian defense on the line of combat contact. Therefore, in their opinion, the only effective method of pressure is strikes on port, gas extraction, and energy infrastructure. At the same time, strikes are delivered not only on power plants, but also on enterprises that supply them with resources. They strike coal enterprises that supply thermal power plants with energy coal. The latest attacks on facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk region led to the shutdown of six enterprises — and this in conditions of the harshest frosts. The strike on underground gas storage facilities in the Lviv region is an attempt to paralyze Ukrainian energy and prevent thermal power plants that use gas from operating.

"Such strikes are not just war crimes. This is genocide of the Ukrainian people. Russian forces understand perfectly well the consequences of these strikes."

It should be noted that the intensification of strikes falls on energy facilities in Kyiv and Kyiv region. The main task is to essentially de-electrify the capital of Ukraine in order to create social tension. Thus, as they think in the Kremlin, they will be able to pressure the political leadership of the country from within Ukraine. But after almost 4 years of full-scale war, Ukrainians cannot be surprised by anything, and such actions by Russian forces do not produce the effect they expect. And they expect the so-called "Iranian scenario" with social unrest, but with Ukrainian specifics. 

I note that the latest Russian strikes, besides the capital of Ukraine, were on substations that connect the energy system of the capital and central regions with nuclear power plants. Russian forces are trying to break the chain of electricity supply and de-electrify not only Kyiv, but also the main industrial centers of Ukraine.

The goal is to provoke a massive internal migration flow. This will create additional burden on budgets and infrastructure. This is financial pressure on local and central budgets, paralysis of transport infrastructure, which will work on evacuation, sowing chaos and panic among the civilian population. This is precisely what is included in the plans of Russian military command. 

I will draw a parallel between the current Russian strikes on Ukraine and NATO strikes during the military operation against Yugoslavia in 1999. At that time, NATO's main efforts to remove Milošević's regime were directed precisely at strikes on energy infrastructure. That is, in the opinion of the Russian dictator, in 1999 NATO countries opened the so-called "Pandora's box," and now the Russian Federation, in his opinion, has full moral right at the moment of delivering strikes on energy facilities of Ukraine.

Pay attention to Trump's statement. He highly appreciated the morale of Ukrainians, saying that in minus 20 degree frost, Ukrainians steadfastly hold on and do not succumb to terror and provocations from Russian forces. This is an adequate assessment of both the Ukrainian population and the actions of the military-political leadership of our country.

Ukraine has full right to respond asymmetrically to Russia for constant shelling of energy infrastructure.

"We have all legal grounds accordingly, because these are legitimate targets of the Ukrainian side and a moral right. Moreover, considering the factor that Russia has harsh climatic conditions — that's first. Complete collapse of the housing and utilities system accordingly — that's second. And third — practically complete absence of air defense system, which was demonstrated by strikes of Ukrainian Defense Forces on strategic military facilities on Russian territory."

Precisely such actions by Ukraine will make further shelling of Ukrainian energy infrastructure impossible.

In my view and my conviction, in order to make further energy terror from Russia impossible, we must, first of all, have the ability to deliver strikes on the energy structure of Russia.

We must cause collapse in them, and accordingly social unrest. A Muscovite can be pulled out from his lair into God's light only under the condition of an empty refrigerator and absence of elementary, even for Russians, living conditions. That is, absence of light, water, heat. This is precisely what will force the Russian dictator to change tactics regarding Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Specially for Espreso

About the author. Dmytro Sniehyriov, military expert, co-chair of the public initiative Right Cause.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.