Russian-Ukrainian War as Driver of Change in Central and Eastern Europe

Russia's aggression against Ukraine marks a turning point in history - a transition from the post-Cold War world to a new world order. We cannot yet name it and define the basic principles on which it will be based, but the contours of the new global order have already been outlined.

It is imperative that international relations be governed by the rule of law and upheld through treaties, rather than through the use of force. The principles of state independence and territorial integrity must be safeguarded and respected, with borders recognized as inviolable. We must also remain vigilant against hybrid tactics aimed at violating these principles, including the exploitation of forced refugee situations.

Nuclear weapons should serve as a deterrent, not as a tool for blackmail or as a means of coercion. The prospect of their use should never be employed as an instrument of manipulation.

The United Nations should remain the foundation of the international security architecture, promoting cooperation among nations and the resolution of conflicts. However, it is crucial to reform the organization itself.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the Russian Federation has violated the fundamental principles of the organization and disregarded its commitments. Russia's open threats of nuclear weapon use push the world to the brink of a nuclear Armageddon. Placing Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus is an irresponsible act, highlighting the immense danger posed by Russian imperial revanchism to Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and all European countries.

The war against Ukraine aims to destroy our state and commit genocide against the Ukrainian people. It is a colonial war reminiscent of those waged by world empires in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Simultaneously, we cannot ignore the violent nature of the "democracy implantation" carried out by the United States of America and its allies in Iraq and Afghanistan. Fortunately, this chapter in world history concluded with the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, and we must draw lessons for the future.

I emphasize these points because there are significant differences between the position of democratic states, often referred to as the West, regarding Russian aggression, and the stance of countries belonging to the Global South, which we have yet to reconcile. The events of the early 21st century contribute to these differences. Russia and China, portraying themselves as "anti-colonial forces," exploit these contradictions.

It is worth noting that Moscow recently proposed expanding the composition of the UN Security Council to include leading states from the Global South.

Thanks to the diligent efforts of Ukrainian diplomacy and the diplomatic endeavors of our allies, some countries from the Global South are adopting a more balanced position. This is evident in their response to Ukraine's 10-point peace plan and the proposal to host a "peace forum" in July of this year. In particular, India has expressed readiness to participate.

Therefore, as we navigate the new global reality and our place within the international system, we must present accurate analyses, realistic plans, and a comprehensive vision. This will encompass Ukraine, Poland, and all of Central and Eastern Europe.

Reflecting on the political transformation of the world following the conclusion of the war in Ukraine, which will result in our victory, it is evident that the international community will face the challenge of restructuring the United Nations (UN), particularly its Security Council.

Ukraine has already stated that the Russian Federation illegitimately assumed the position of the former USSR through force, with the backing of the United States. The US, at the time, believed that the nuclear arsenal should solely be under Russian control. However, former American President Bill Clinton recently admitted that this decision was a mistake. Ukrainian officials had warned him in 1994 that Soviet weapons in Russian hands would inevitably lead to Kremlin's aggression against Ukraine.

Those who were observant witnessed the unfolding events, while those who refused to listen heard the rumbling of tanks, the roaring of airplanes, and the sounds of rockets flying overhead.

The world must draw conclusions from these events. Nuclear powers do not guarantee peace and global security; on the contrary, they have become a source of war and danger. The restructured UN Security Council should reflect this new reality, with an updated composition of permanent members. Additionally, the Council should include new members from both the democratic West and the Global South.

The question arises: Is there a place for Ukraine and, more broadly, for the representation of Central and Eastern Europe in this new structure? Currently, there is no definitive answer as this matter has not been thoroughly discussed. Therefore, it is crucial that we make every effort to be conceptually and politically prepared for such discussions.

This responsibility falls upon Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, as well as our politicians, intellectuals, and experts. In the new world order, our states and the entire region should secure a rightful place that aligns with our significance, potential, and ambitions.

The offices of the presidents of Ukraine and Poland, along with our foreign policy departments, are actively working on a new bilateral agreement. It is my hope that this issue remains a priority on their agenda and is not overlooked.

Dear students,

During his inaugural visit to Poland in 1979, Pope John Paul II emphasized the significance of Europe's two lungs—the western and the eastern. He declared Cyril and Methodius as co-patrons of our continent, recognizing the thousand-year-old traditions of Ukrainian Christianity, culture, statehood, and its people during his visits to Ukraine in 2001.

The Pope's call, "From the Union of Lublin to the European Union," on the eve of Poland's accession to the EU, is also applicable to Ukraine. The heritage of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth has the potential to unite our nations.

Ukraine is embracing its diverse national, state, religious, and cultural identities as it returns to Europe. Europe is our home—an inclusive political Ukrainian nation that seeks to unite everyone, as demonstrated prominently during the ongoing struggle against Russian imperialism. Ukraine defends its right to join the European Union and NATO through a bloody war, a choice supported by 80-90% of Ukrainians who firmly believe there is no alternative. Attempts to establish good neighborly relations with Russia have proven illusory and costly, particularly for those who succumb to them. Similarly, the "multi-vector" foreign policy, which was the official doctrine of our state in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, entailed surrendering national interests.

Between 2015 and 2017, Ukraine and the EU signed an association agreement, a free trade zone agreement, and achieved a visa-free regime for crossing EU borders. Last year, we became a candidate for EU membership, and there is a chance to commence the procedure for full membership later this year.

Ukraine's EU membership is supported by our steadfast allies, including Poland, Lithuania, the Baltic countries, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Recently, Scandinavian countries, France, and Germany have also joined this group. The ice has been broken, and even those who previously regarded European-oriented Ukrainians, as well as their Polish and Lithuanian friends, as dreamers now admit their profound error.

With the accession of Ukraine, Moldova, and, hopefully, Georgia, the European Union will undergo transformation. Primarily, the EU will solidify its eastern political borders, established through a resolute and enduring process amidst a violent conflict. Alongside the inclusion of Western Balkan countries, this will signal the end of debates concerning the essence and identity of Europe. Europeans are confident in their traditions, content with the union that began to take shape in the 1950s, and prepared to defend it.

Simultaneously, we hope for a future in which a European perspective will open up to democratic Belarus because Belarus is undeniably a part of Europe.

I represent political parties, public organizations, and broad segments of society who firmly believe that Ukraine must fulfill its obligations in order to attain full membership in the EU. This entails implementing reforms, adhering to European legislation, upholding the rule of law, promoting democracy, safeguarding freedom of speech, and protecting the rights and dignity of every citizen. It is crucial for Ukraine to overcome the lingering remnants of communism, such as corruption, oligarchy, and the neglect of the needs of the underprivileged.

These ideals are not mere rhetoric for Ukraine, as they were the driving force behind our revolutions in the early 21st century—the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014. These uprisings were fought to defend these fundamental values. Since 2014, we have been steadfastly reaffirming our commitment through armed resistance against Russia, which seeks to force us into the past at any cost. We have unequivocally chosen a European future.

For this reason, we have a strong interest in deepening European integration, strengthening European institutions, and upholding the rule of law, freedoms, and human and civil rights.

To achieve our European dream, Ukraine cannot and will not follow Hungary's example. It is my firm belief that this path aligns with the national interests of Poland and Lithuania as well. The strengthening of Central and Eastern Europe as a whole will enhance its role within the European Union.

Ukraine should become a NATO member as soon as possible, following a simplified procedure similar to that of Finland and Sweden. While we understand the challenges associated with this, Ukrainians reject any mention of "special security guarantees." We have experienced this before when signing the Budapest Memorandum in 1994. The guarantees of our independence and territorial integrity proved to be worth less than the paper they were written on.

Only full membership in the North Atlantic Alliance will ensure peace and security for Ukraine, our region, and the entire continent of Europe.

Simultaneously, Ukraine's NATO membership and allied relations with Poland, Lithuania, and other regional countries will solidify what many are already acknowledging—the center of Europe's security, military, and to a large extent, political spheres have shifted eastward.

During his presidential inauguration, Joe Biden highlighted the conflict between democracy and authoritarianism as the principal struggle of the modern era. The future of the world for the next several decades hinges on how we tackle this challenge. The victory of Ukraine and the decisions made by democratic states and societies today will determine the fate of not only Ukrainians but also that of future generations.

Initially, it seemed that autocrats, led by Putin and Xi Jinping, had the upper hand. The Chinese leader even directly conveyed this to the head of the American superpower. Emboldened by their perceived suoeriority, China and Russia embarked on a strategy for a new world order, as proclaimed in the joint declaration of Xi Jinping and Putin on February 4, 2022, which emphasized "borderless friendship."

They drew inspiration from the disorderly withdrawal of the American and allied troops from Afghanistan, the weakening of Euro-Atlantic ties, and the internal strife in the United States, including the events of January 6, 2021, when the Capitol was stormed. They were also motivated by the prospect of China surpassing the American economy and gaining a monopoly on the rare earth metals market, facilitated by large-scale infrastructure projects like the New Silk Road and substantial loans to governments and private enterprises.

In the eastern part of the European Union, the Chinese communists' strategy included offering cooperation through the "1+17" formula, which was initially rejected by the Republic of Lithuania. This decision deserves praise because, based on statements from the Chinese ambassador in Paris, it became clear that this offer served as a cover for the expansionist plans of Beijing and Moscow. Their interpretation disregards the legal borders of the post-Soviet states and the countries formerly known as "people's democracies."

Russian politicians are more direct and openly discuss the "occupation" of modern Poland and their territorial claims over lands that were once part of the Russian Empire.

However, the resistance of the Ukrainian people, the bravery and valor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the support from our allies and partners, have demonstrated that democracy is not defenseless. This collective effort highlights that the future belongs to freedom and democracy, rather than authoritarian regimes, be it with communist or so-called "conservative" ideologies.