Russian offensive has been reduced to minor battles. Vuhledar is more important than Bakhmut. Military expert Serhiy Zgurets

About Bakhmut. Yesterday, President Zelenskyy held a regular meeting of the Commander-in-Chief's Staff to discuss the situation around the city. Generals Zaluzhnyi and Syrskyi spoke in favor of continuing the defense operation and further strengthening Ukraine’s positions. Prior to this meeting, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who is responsible for the defense of this area, visited Bakhmut once again and stated that the fighting in the city had reached the highest intensity. Ukrainian soldiers are bravely defending their positions, trying to prevent encirclement. Such statements were made today.

Bakhmut has fulfilled and exceeded its mission

According to military expert Serhiy Grabskyi, in terms of operational and strategic tasks, Bakhmut has fulfilled and exceeded its mission. We must understand that the General Staff knows the situation better. We can only assume why the decision to continue the defense was made. Grabskyi attributes it, among other things, to the hysterical speech of the head of the Wagner PMC, Prigozhin, about a possible withdrawal from Bakhmut if there is insufficient ammunition. Some derivative factors suggest that the situation is at its peak. Russian forces are running out of options because they may simply not have enough troops. They have exhausted themselves by fighting for a de facto secondary city.

The decision of the military leadership allows us to say that the preconditions are being created for more effective actions in the future, even if we withdraw from Bakhmut. Ukraine is creating the preconditions for its offensive in other areas or in Donbas to be more effective. 

The expert added that Russia cannot afford to open a new front because of Bakhmut. It has abandoned its attempt to create a strike group that can attack from the North. What is this if not an operational and strategic victory for the Ukrainian Defense Forces? Fighting in other areas of the frontline did not achieve any result - Bakhmut and Soledar, as one of the forts of the Bakhmut fortress, fulfilled their task and did not allow Russian troops to develop an offensive in other areas, in particular in the Kharkiv region. 

The situation in Bakhmut

Grabskyi noted that Russian forces are more or less developing its offensive around Bakhmut. Now they are rushing to Khromove, because the road that connects Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar and Bakhmut goes through it. They are trying to cut one of the supply routes. The military say that Russian troops are advancing in divergent directions, not with one cohesive force. They are trying to catch on to something and try to gain an advantage. Now this poses a threat to them.

The expert said that in the southern part of the city, a successful attack by the 80th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces allowed to push Russian troops away from the Kostyantynivka-Bakhmut highway and provide support to Ukrainian units. Bakhmut is still quite far from being surrounded - as long as Ukraine holds the supply lines, which are covered by artillery from Chasiv Yar, it can hold the city.

Vuhledar is more important than Bakhmut in terms of further actions

Grabskyi emphasized that the Russian group in Vuhledar suffered a phenomenal defeat, which for some time forced them to abandon their offensive intentions. The place called Marinka is also a symbol of Ukraine’s resilience - the Russian army has not passed there since the beginning of the war. This place is also extremely important in terms of destroying Russian resources. Russian troops have not been able to capture Avdiivka either and are trying to outflank it. With enormous resources (350,000 to 370,000 people), they slipped into street battles for individual settlements and exhausted their offensive capabilities. Russia’s offensive was reduced to minor combat operations. It cannot capture any borders of the Donetsk region and is unlikely to be able to do so until the end of spring.

The expert added that Vuhledar is more significant than Bakhmut in terms of further actions. If Russia manages to push Ukrainian troops away from Vuhledar, it will make the land corridor from Russia to Crimea more secure. This will allow them to strengthen their southern grouping, making it more difficult for Ukraine to liberate Crimea. As of now, Vuhledar is the key to Crimea. We must also realize that the shortest distance to Mariupol is from Ukrainian positions near Vuhledar. Both Ukraine and Russia understand the strategic importance of this direction, which allows Ukraine to control the basis of Russia’s logistics - the railroad. Russian troops may repeat their crazy assault in Vuhledar, because the situation has not changed for them, but Ukrainian troops are ready to fight them.

Aviation, in particular helicopters, is necessary for the offensive

Grabskyi supports the idea that Ukraine needs aviation for an offensive in any format. The country will be receiving Western tanks, which are at least 15 tons heavier than Soviet models and require reliable air cover. It will be quite difficult to solve this issue solely with air defense means. In operations at 80 to 100 km, it would also be reasonable to use helicopters as a means of combat support for ground forces. Only in combination can we talk about an effective offensive: ground troops covered by air defense, artillery, long-range strikes and cover by attack aircraft and helicopters. Otherwise, it's a bit of a gamble.

A new generation submarine

At the Idex-2023 arms exhibition, Highland Systems, a company founded by Ukrainian developers, presented a prototype of the Kronos stealth submarine for the first time. This submarine is capable of attacking enemy naval targets and can be used as an unmanned vehicle. 

The head of the company, Oleksandr Kuznetsov, said that the autonomy of this submarine is 54 hours. The range is 54 kilometers. Now all submarines are of the 4th generation, this one is the 5th. They will be manufactured in 5 to 7 years. It is difficult to hit the submarine because it moves underwater more like an aircraft. Torpedoes and missiles cannot physically hit it because its movement is almost independent. It can carry 5 to 10 troops and provide them with a way to go underwater. It can lay mines, approach the ship unnoticed, and control 2 drones in the kit. The submarine can carry 4 to 6 torpedoes. It can stay underwater autonomously for 36 hours. It can communicate, receive a signal, find a target, recognize it, add it to a "white" or "black" list, and request an action. The submarine can also patrol, track, and attack on its own. Even if it is found, it is difficult to hit.

Kuznetsov added that the third prototype was presented, which was tested for 2 months.  According to the developer, a country that owns this type of submarine can change the balance of power in the seas.  He said that after all the processes, it will be possible to produce 10 submarines every 4 months.