Black Sea ceasefire unlikely to boost Ukraine's economy, says MP Zheleznyak

MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak said this on the sidelines of the Verkhovna Rada sessional meeting, reports Espreso correspondent Natalia Starepravo. 

"I personally don’t think this is a significant boost to our export capacity. Frankly, thanks to Ukraine's marine drones, we have significantly expanded our capabilities in the Black Sea. On the contrary, this unfortunately worsens our situation regarding influence on the enemy, particularly in the Black Sea. The longer daylight hours now offer greater opportunities to strike their targets with drones using daytime control," Zheleznyak said.

Regarding other possible aspects of the Black Sea ceasefire agreement, the MP noted that Ukraine might be able to utilize its infrastructure more effectively if an agreement is reached on banning attacks on ports.

"Once again, from numerous statements, I haven’t clearly understood which ports are involved, and whether there is a list of ports that would be theoretically protected from enemy attacks. For instance, will Mykolaiv fall under the protected Black Sea waters? Or Kherson? The situation remains quite unclear," he added.

Zheleznyak is convinced that these agreements will not significantly impact the Ukrainian economy.

"Over the three years of full-scale war, our business has built a new logistics branch that is now in use. There is an opportunity to shorten the logistics arm, thus becoming more competitive in international markets. But I don’t think this is a major change that will drastically help our economy. It seems to me that: a) it is more beneficial to the enemy; b) at least two parties, Russia and the US, needed to show some kind of agreement. And they chose energy and something that wasn’t so important for either Ukraine or Russia," explained Zheleznyak.

At the same time, he noted that there is still no clear information about the agreements reached.

"We have five statements, and they are all different. Some talk about demands, others say they are reviewing demands. There was a statement by Zelenskyy, cleverly constructed, saying that we believe a ceasefire in the Black Sea should follow a statement from the White House, but we don’t trust the Russians. So, this was kind of a bookmark, suggesting that the Russians will clearly violate such agreements. We have too little information to even understand what the agreements are, and what the framework for the Black Sea agreements might be. So it’s hard to make an economic or any other prediction," the MP argued.

Speaking about potential benefits for Ukraine from a ceasefire at sea, Yaroslav Zheleznyak mentioned that, if the agreements are reached, the number of operational ports could increase.

"At least Mykolaiv and Kherson could operate with larger capacities and fewer risks, while the three Odessa ports would work better. But I wouldn’t say that this is a significant challenge for us right now," he said.

However, the MP emphasized again that achieving a ceasefire in the Black Sea would be more beneficial for Russia than for Ukraine, and most international experts agree with this.

"Where might our interest or additional opportunity arise? First, it would be cheaper insurance. So, if there is a ceasefire, it will probably be a little cheaper. Why just a little? Because Russia always violates what it agrees to. On the first day of the ‘grain agreement,’ there was a strike on maritime infrastructure. Second, the opening of ports. In this case, it concerns Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. But, apart from the security risks, we have technical issues there because, at the start of the full-scale war, many vessels were sunk to prevent the enemy’s marine movements. And now, three years later, resolving these technical issues is quite difficult," the MP added.

Zheleznyak also drew attention to another detail regarding the negotiations.

"What’s interesting in the global context is that, in fact, the US seems to be taking the position that everything is agreed upon, and they will facilitate Russia’s agricultural exports, while Russia is saying: ‘No, first meet the requirements, and then we’ll think about the ceasefire.’ And this flash of positions is helping us change Trump’s mind. Because, tonight, he didn’t say much bad for us but mentioned that he has the impression that Russia actually doesn’t want a ceasefire. Finally, we are slowly starting to reach the correct assessment of the situation," the MP said.

• On March 25, a new round of negotiations took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between the Ukrainian and American delegations. Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow agreed to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. The parties released the results.
• On the same day, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that a ceasefire regarding energy infrastructure could be introduced as early as March 25, with this matter having been agreed upon with the United States.
• President’s communications advisor, Dmytro Lytvyn, stated that since March 18, the Russian army has shelled energy facilities in Ukraine at least eight times.