Withdrawal from Vuhledar: military expert predicts when Ukrainian army will have to leave

This was stated by Ivan Stupak, a military expert and State Security Service officer in 2004-2015, on the Espreso TV channel.

"It's hard to say how long the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to defend the town of Vuhledar, which had a population of 15,000 people before the war. I assume that the town may have to be abandoned by October 10. This is the best case scenario, if the situation does not change for the better in terms of additional forces that we will find to stop the Russian advance, or if the Russians suffer such losses that they will not be able to conduct offensive actions. But it seems to me that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to withdraw by October 10, maybe even earlier. Some military men say that the countdown is already on. It's not just our military there, although it's clear that the most important thing is to get them out without losses. But, in addition, there is a corresponding amount of equipment, and ammunition, which is also important to take away and not leave to the enemy," he said.

With the help of guided aerial bombs, the Russian forces break through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, positions, and have the ability to surround, Stupak said.

"Vuhledar is surrounded by Russians on three sides. This is not some kind of insight, this is data from DeepState analysts, and they are very careful in reporting new positions of both the Ukrainian military and the Russians. They show that Ukrainian troops are surrounded from the south, west and east of Vuhledar. The north is still ours, but unfortunately, our military say that the Russians are using the guided aerial bombs to level the advantage that Ukrainians have, not only now, but also in previous locations, and possibly in the future as well. The town of Vuhledar is located at a height, it is quite convenient to defend, it is acceptable for defense, and it is a large logistics hub. But the occupying Russian army is breaking through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with these guided aerial bombs," he added.

The military expert explained what the capture of Vuhledar gives Russia and what prospects for the Russian forces are emerging in the Donetsk sector. 

"Firstly, this is a Ukrainian town that will be destroyed and captured by Russian troops. This is for your understanding. Secondly, if we talk in more detail, the town of Kurakhove is in a very difficult situation. This is a very rough estimate, because if the Russians manage to take Vuhledar, the next town to be taken will be Kurakhove and the road connecting Kurakhove to the town of Pokrovske in the Dnipropetrovsk region. That is, the position of our military will worsen because of this advance," he concluded.

• On September 24, DeepState reported that the Russian occupation army was trying to raze Vuhledar in Donetsk region. The situation around the city is "critical and continues to deteriorate".
• The Institute for the Study of War reports that the capture of Vuhledar is unlikely to give Russian troops any special operational advantage for further offensive operations in the western part of Donetsk region.
• Serhiy Zgurets, director of the information and consulting company Defence Express, noted that Russian enemy is conducting bypass maneuvers from the west and east in the area of Vuhledar.