Has Witkoff overplayed his hand in Paris?

The international analytical community Resurgam shared its analysis of the situation.

The Rubio-Witkoff duo presents an interesting case, particularly given the tension between them. As noted, "it’s highly likely that Rubio is going with Witkoff by orders from above – otherwise, Witkoff wouldn’t have been received in Paris at the presidential level."

In European diplomatic circles, Witkoff and Vance are regarded as controversial figures due to their actions and previous statements about Europe. Their remarks regarding Le Pen’s conviction add another layer of sensitivity to French politics. In contrast, "Rubio, Waltz, and Kellogg have well-established relationships with European diplomacy," which highlights that this mission is primarily Witkoff’s initiative, with Rubio acting, apparently, "on Trump’s orders – simply as his ticket in to Macron."

The notion that this is truly Witkoff’s trip is supported by two main observations:

1. "Rubio and Witkoff do not work together, but hold their own meetings separately."
2. "Somehow, Witkoff’s status as a mere special representative ends up outweighing that of the Secretary of State, given the curious division of meetings: Witkoff is scheduled to meet Macron, while Rubio is meeting only with Barrot."

Thus, it’s clear that this visit is not a joint Rubio-Witkoff mission, but rather Witkoff’s solo endeavor. This naturally raises the question: what exactly does the U.S. special representative want from Macron?

To answer this, it’s important to recall a recent Politico article that pointed out Trump’s irritation over Europe’s strong support for Ukraine. Based on this, Resurgam suggests that Witkoff may be trying to explain to Trump the "lack of real progress in negotiations with Putin" by blaming Europe’s firm stance, which he claims is "getting in the way."

The choice of Macron for these discussions is no accident. France currently plays a leading role, alongside the UK, in shaping support for Ukraine. However, while Washington holds considerable influence over London, "its leverage over Paris is significantly more limited." Additionally, Paris has adopted a De Gaulle-style approach, promoting European strategic autonomy and urging "a boycott of American goods as part of a trade war," while encouraging the redirection of European defense funds away from the U.S.

Another significant factor is France’s continued engagement with Iran, notably through attempts to revive the nuclear deal, where European sanctions are a key issue.

Thus, the main topics Witkoff aims to address are:

• Dissuading France from deepening its involvement in the "coalition of the willing."
• Encouraging Paris to soften its anti-American rhetoric.
• Convincing France not to obstruct U.S. efforts regarding negotiations with Iran.

According to the Resurgam analysis, Witkoff’s strategy seems to involve a careful mix of incentives — possibly offering special treatment for French goods — and pressure tactics to sway Paris’s position.

However, even before the talks officially started, Witkoff faced a diplomatic setback: Paris is organizing a working meeting for the "coalition of the willing" with Ukrainian participation. Resurgam notes that "the meeting essentially serves as a diplomatic demonstration from Macron to Witkoff: 'Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.'"

France will be represented by Minister Barrot, who will first meet with Rubio. Interestingly, this dynamic suggests that Rubio is increasingly stepping into a leadership role regarding European negotiations. Although Rubio was initially seen as merely "Witkoff’s ticket into Paris," the situation now points toward the gradual strengthening of Rubio’s position at Witkoff’s expense.