Will Putin agree to a ceasefire?

This means one thing: for the first time, Trump has outlined his position on negotiations — proposing a 30-day ceasefire along the current front line.

Since U.S. military aid to Ukraine was unblocked at the same time, it's clear that Washington has no confidence Putin will accept Trump's offer.

Now, Putin has to decide.

Russia has already claimed five Ukrainian regions as its own. A ceasefire would mean abandoning the goal of taking full control of those territories.

Without such a concession — without Russia giving up its ambition to seize Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions — there can be no ceasefire.

In my view, for Putin to agree, the Russian army must be stopped at the front. That means proving he cannot destroy Ukraine through military force.

To achieve that, more occupiers must be eliminated than Putin can replace — roughly 40,000 per month. At that rate, the front will grind to a halt, and further offensives will become unviable for Russia. This is the only guaranteed way to force Putin into peace talks.

So if Trump wants Putin to accept his plan, he must show that the U.S. is prepared to ramp up support for Ukraine — not just to contain Russia, but to inflict decisive military defeats.

If the U.S. and EU keep military aid at 2024 levels but boost funding for advanced drones, electronic warfare, and communications, Ukraine could, within a year, establish a full-scale drone warfare front. That would enable the systematic destruction of Russian infantry while minimizing Ukrainian losses. The trained personnel, technology, and infrastructure are already in place, what’s missing is the scale.

Only battlefield defeats and the loss of offensive capability will force Putin to negotiate peace.

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About the author: Yuriy Butusov, journalist

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.