No, it is not about protecting democracy and deterring Putin, although these are arguments. Everything is more pragmatic and mercantile.
1. In the event of worsening developments in Ukraine and Russia's victory, the German government expects no less than 10 million additional refugees from Ukraine. However, such a number would cause a collapse in the EU. The leadership of Western European countries, where refugees would head, understands this well. That's why they will invest money in Ukraine to prevent such a scenario. The EU is not against 200-400 thousand migrants per year, but too much is not good.
2. In the event of such a scenario, among these refugees will be a large number of those who will cross with arms and have experience serving in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Experts estimate this to be around 400-600 thousand individuals. This includes both active-duty military personnel and veterans who understand what awaits them in case of Russia's victory.
“Such a large number of war-injured individuals within the EU is a nightmare for European officials for many reasons. Therefore, they are very interested in ensuring that Ukraine does not lose.”
3. Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia understand that they could become potential targets of Russia. Even the Hungarians, despite their russophilia, do not want to share a border with Russia and prefer their affection for the Russians at a distance. Therefore, the attitudes of European politicians can be understood. The existence of a buffer between them and the horde is crucial for them. They also understand that as long as Russia expands its military potential in Ukraine, Moscow is not focused on European countries.
It all sounds very cynical, but it's true.
And it's also worth mentioning how much money the West has invested in Ukraine, recognizing us as a potential market, and how the West views the opportunities for Ukraine's reconstruction in terms of revitalizing their own economies, among many other factors. I've heard all of this multiple times from Western politicians.
So, they won't abandon us, no matter how much the Russians may wish for it. Moscow might get an earful from the herring. At most.
But a lot also depends on us. And we shouldn't forget about it. No one will fight for us. They will provide weapons and money. The challenge for both the government and citizens is to have someone to fight with the occupiers.
So, let's ditch the panic thoughts. Prepare for the long haul. Not just a TV news marathon from the OP, but a long military marathon. It's a war of attrition, and we need to endure and reach victory. And we will.
About the author. Boryslav Bereza, public activist, former member of the Ukrainian Parliament
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.