Why Russia shouldn’t be given breather

Russian narratives go like this: let’s quickly agree to a truce, a little truce, because otherwise it’ll get worse, Russia is attacking, Ukraine will lose, so it’s better to freeze things here and now.

That’s a lie.

Despite all of Ukraine’s current problems, Russia still can’t and won’t achieve even its minimal military goal: reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Simply because they’ve been trying to advance toward Pokrovsk since late 2023. That’s their main direction of attack. And now three combined arms armies are buried there, their tanks are burned — more than some European countries even have — and they've been forced to switch from vehicles to motorcycles. The result — they haven’t even entered the city.

"Well, that is, Ukraine isn’t liberating territory right now, apart from small counterattacks — but Russia can’t reach its goals in any scenario. That’s the battlefield reality. On top of that, the Russian economy has already slipped into recession."

So right now, the aggression is already hitting the aggressor harder than it’s hitting us. That’s why Russia is focusing on psychological warfare (funding various talkative idiots) and terrorism (nonstop shelling of civilian objects). That’s also why they’re pushing for negotiations that would give them a pause and end sanctions.

Because that’s exactly what they want — a pause and sanctions relief — as conditions to continue the war. That would let them pull the economy out of recession, restock weapons, and rebuild ties with the West. And once that happens, cutting aid to Ukraine (because “there’s no more war now”) becomes easy — just a few Orbáns and half a Fico are enough for that. Then a quiet year — and round two. By then, Ukraine’s mobilized troops will be back home, and the usual political, economic, and social strife will return.

So any negotiation that gives Russia room to recover (especially if it includes lifting sanctions) is an open invitation for the next aggression, with much bigger threats.

Source

About the author: Viktor Trehubov, Ukrainian journalist, blogger, publicist, public and political figure.

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.