Why is Putin convening Security Council?

To build suspense, they added that this is the meeting “many have been waiting for” — presumably a reference to a response to Ukraine’s strikes on strategic airfields.

By now, it’s clear to everyone: Putin’s options are limited. Nukes are off the table — and likely will remain so. And something like the Oreshnik clearly doesn’t warrant a full Security Council session.

So, what are the possible scenarios?

1. The worst-case scenario: Preparation for mobilization — or even a formal announcement. Technically, they’ve been ready for it since April. I don’t believe we’d see mass protests if it happens. If it comes to this, we can expect a repeat of last time: the regime drags off 300,000 men, and the rest breathe a sigh of relief that they were spared.
2. A very bad scenario: Declaring new regions — like Kharkiv — as Russian territory.
3. Another bad scenario: A public call for help from North Korea. Remember, Shoigu visited Kim last week. I think the most Pyongyang could offer is around 100,000 troops. But if they send that many at once, it would be a very serious problem for Ukraine.
4. Nothing happens: The meeting is all show.

I’m laying out the worst-case scenarios on purpose. It’s better to be prepared for the bad news — even if I hope scenario four is the one that plays out.

And let’s not rule out the possibility that this whole announcement is just Putin’s way of trying to get Trump to call him again. Maybe even Xi.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.